This is a scary topic so let me start my post by sharing with you this short video:
One day I was watching one of @craig-grant 's videos on his youtube channel and I found out he was using a credit card to pay for his mining contracts.
I was a bit surprised at first because after watching some of his other videos I saw some impressive amounts of crypto in his accounts. So I just couldn't stop wondering, why? Isn't it better to use your own capital and not stuff bank's pockets with money from fees? But then it hit me ... and it was one of those moments when your alter ego takes charge and reproachfully asks you back: "But isn't it better to make money without freezing up your cash? What if you need it for other emergencies? So what if they request some fee? You can see it as profit tax!"
Now let's talk numbers:
If we invest in mining the same amount we would be willing to pay monthly for a loan then we miss out on lots of mining rewards (50% of the rising period) because we start with very little hash power and slowly build up. Much better to just start with the maximum hash power.
What do we need to care about when buying hash power?
- current price of coin. This can change over the contract's period, but witnessing this magnificent bloom of crypto in the last year I find it safe to say that prices for most of the coins in top 50 from https://coinmarketcap.com/ will go up in the next 1-2 years. I'm not 100% sure so let's further elaborate and define a price range that we can be comfortable with.
- difficulty
- number of days to break even (use calculators). This gives us a hint on calculating the Return on Investment (ROI)
If we consider the following scenario:
- I pick a coin with a price of X/unit. I purchase a contract with a price of Y for 2 years. I calculate my brake even point at 244 days (you can find better :D). ETH - 162.34 days, XMR - 214.34 days to break even
Worst case:
- X (price per unit) drops 50% (on average) for the entire contract period
- increased difficulty by 100% (on average) for the entire contract period
=> 244 * 2 + 244 * 2 = 976 days (2.7 years) to break even => at the end of the contract I will have 74% * Y (minus loan fee and minus pool fees) in my wallet. I actually lost 26% * Y + loan fee + pool fees, but depending on Y this is a risk I'm willing to take considering the potential winning from the next 2 cases.
Normal case:
- X (price per unit) stays the same for the entire contract period (on average)
- increased difficulty by 50% (on average) for the entire contract period
=> 244 + 244/2 = 366 days (1 years) to break even => 100% ROI in 2 years => at the end of the contract I will have Y * 200% (minus loan fee and minus pool fees) in my wallet
Best case:
- X (price per unit) increased by 50% for the entire contract period (on average)
- increased difficulty by 25% (on average) for the entire contract period
=> 244* 2/3 + 244/4 = 223.7 days (61.3% years) to break even =>more than 200% ROI in 2 years => at the end of the contract I will have more than Y * 300% (minus loan fee and minus pool fees) in my wallet
I rest my case! :D
Also check the following link for a better understanding of loans.
P.S.: I moved to UK recently (5 months ago) so I will not be eligible for a loan for 1 more month.
That's not a big problem as I still have to do some research on fees and come up with a fake reason for a personal loan as I'm sure they won't grant me one for investing in mining contracts :)
I'm willing to pay 10% in fees from my Y :) is there any other solution to get a loan in fiat currencies like USD, GBP or EUR except from banks?