Portfolio

Following up on previous post, I managed to rebound slightly from the previous long, and eventually closed below long on around 120 USD profit I think. Rather immaterial tho.

Market view

Today's post will be slightly longer, as I'd like to elaborate on the market situation, which is looking pretty good and according to my assumptions from months ago.
As a reminder, I expect strong rally in the near future, followed-up with a dump or even a bear market shortly after the halving (or slightly prior to). This is because all the retail expects another bull-market and repetition of 4 year cycle. And because everyone expects that, it will not happen - because that's how the market works. My plan for now is to realize sizable profits on upcoming rally.

Furthermore, we just reached a volatility breaking point, so I think it's the perfect moment for the start of the rally. Not to mention retail interest in crypto is the lowest in a few years (google trends), and soon every noob will be jumping on the halving news.
For context:

And my favourite chart to keep an eye on:

So now we need to sit tight, relax, and sell near the top of the rally. Considering its gonna play out, lol.
Today's market situation is however also quite typical for capitulations, which I mentioned on my Twitter. This is however quite unlikely to occur right now, as we had a strong capitulation already in November.

https://twitter.com/tyszqq/status/1707333193680994487

- tyszqq