Market sentiment
source: canstar.com.au
As much as there are at this point thousands of ways to read the charts, filled with theories and numbers, I'm still holding strong to skepticism. For the year I've been accompanying cryptocurrencies, I know of nobody that has been correct more often than not, which shows me that real traders, if they actually exist, don't share anything to the public at least.
However one undeniable conclusion that I will carry to the grave, is that markets are driven by public sentiment. Things go up and down in value depending on how people feel about it, and possibly nothing more. Yes, of course I'm not oblivious to manipulation, but for the most part, what's being manipulated is precisely that, how people feel.
Knowing this both gives me peace of mind and also frustrates me. Why? Because I see people who are working against themselves almost every single day. Mind you, I'm not saying that there are no reasons to be critical, or to even be scared, but succumbing to those fears, spreading misinformation, etc, does little to nothing to help our case.
To put this bluntly: If sentiment is what drives markets, how can you affect in a positive way sentiment? Can you? Should you? Why or why not? Maybe these are questions that need asking, and if we refuse to contemplate them, then we should be able to predict how the game will unfold.
It echoes
I've been thinking about this particular truth in the past few weeks, mostly because it's always true, but within the context of my choices today, it's specially so. This is to say that the decisions I'm making today are sure to echo throughout my existence, and I'm under no illusion it works in any other way.
I also must remind myself and quite often, that I was one of those who had always complained about being late to the opportunity. I'm of those who would say "If I'd only had ....", as I would imagine a different present from the one I was living. So, it's understandable that when the markets were in all the hype and nobody believed the prices were ever coming down, I was experiencing regret yet again. "if I had only listened to my friend Amador".
There is even this meme out there that sums up precisely what was going through my mind last December; "Gosh... I wish Bitcoin would go down so I can get in" - Guess what? I got my wish, and yes I know it was not the universe answering my call either, don't worry.
Choices my friends, choices. If there is one thing that we need in order to play the game of life, is the ability to not be shutdown from choices. I didn't want much, not really, I just wanted a second chance and it seems like I got one, it seems like you did, we all did.
Facing reality
The day that I knew things were not turning around, the day when it became obvious that the second opportunity was well on it's way, I actually smiled a bit. Yes, I worried too, I won't lie, but I also knew what had to happen now, there was no way of delaying anything anymore.
You could say I came to grips with the real concept of what it means to be an early adopter of something. For a second, I thought I was not, I thought I had caught the second or third wave, and I was building my future on top of the structure others had built before me. This notion was comforting, but far from the truth.
All this to say, that now I know what I should be doing, and know it all too well. You see, I have dreams, big dreams. I've been called a dreamer my whole life and it has never felt as an insult, but I think I truly understand what they meant with their critiques. If I want to make it, if I want to truly fulfill all these crazy ideas in my head, I have to be prepared mentally, physically and yes economically. I can't think that focusing on one, will sort out the rest, just because I want it to, not anymore.
And yes, I know the markets will turn around, and I know that once again euphoria will take over, but I'll go into the madness armed with knowledge. I will know it's just another cycle, and the boom bust will repeat once more.
For now... we could use some stronger placebos, right?
