Dear Steemit friends,
in my article over a month ago i made a prediction based on data of a Coincierge article. I was very sceptic that we would see the numbers of the past because we are now back to reality after the December 17 hype. Let's look what happened since then:
My simple mathematical sequence resulted in a Bitcoin price of $26,104 and if we look today we see
a much much smaller price, to be more precise -76% from the predicted numbers. This confirms my assumption and now i'm excited to see what will happen after the next 6 weeks. In the prediction we should have $40,084 and i'm still very sceptic that we are even near these staggering numbers but time will tell.
People like patterns
We like mathematical sequences, patterns which lead with high probability or 100% certainty to a result which we want.. wishful thinking yes! Crypto markets are highly driven by emotions and there is even now at a price level of $6,000 for the Bitcoin a possibility that we see these numbers but very unlikely in my eyes. But if someone paints a convincing picture which shows such numbers for the near future many would be happy or this would create some fresh hope. Reality always hits hard if we cannot hide anymore or run around and in these days we see the reality of a amazing rallye months ago. We cannot longer brush the reality aside that the parabolic rise is over for at least now and the near future.
Still staggering levels
However, to tell you the truth.. especially to people who are not long enough in the space we are still on high levels for market cap overall and price for the Bitcoin. If you look back to January 2017 you see the current price of Bitcoin is still 6x higher than at this time:
source: coinmarketcap.com
That are still staggering numbers of growth! People who invested in the hype or boom phase are now desillusioned or panicked, sold all their assets.. coins with a loss. Others took some profits because they smelled the nonsense already in the beginning and preparing now for reinvesting. After such phase the interest of the public is way lower than before if we look at Google Trends it's obvious that people now think about other things like Bitcoin or maybe hate to talk about at all.
Lack of interest doesn't mean it's over!
source: Google Trends
With the decreasing interest in these topics also the price falls further. It seems both are directly tied together. It seems there is no reasonable investment strategy behind but that is a deceiving picture in my eyes.. because we have still much higher levels than ever before! There are smart people, investors who still holding their coins but the timeframe matters. If you look just the last half year you could be completely depressed. A technical analysis could say we break all support levels right down to the gutter.. without any emergency brake and the end of the world is near.. but if you look back further you know that's the wrong picture. These cycles are not new and people who are in since 2011 or 2013 exactly know what i mean.
We had a new distribution of wealth and now there is still much money in the market (relative to crypto) and others wait with cash on the sidelines. We saw the news about institutions who are preparing their trading desks and financial products like Goldman Sachs and it's clear that's just a matter of time til the market gets pumped again with much higher amounts of fresh fiat money but patience is now the game. We should always remember.. the game is not over until we sell our coins.. with a loss.
Sold your coins or still hodl for the next crypto boom?
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Exciting times ahead steemit friends!
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