BTC/USD Weekly Chart (Scenario 1)
With the current virus spreading all around and the Stock market crash, the crypto space also took a powerful hit. Therefore, Bitcoin broke the 200 weekly MA (grey) and closed the weekly candle under this well-known support level. But what will happen in the next period?
Well, the bearish option would be for us to to revisit the lower base line of this major triangle, at around 3800$. As shown in the image, 3800$ means a 26% retrace from this level and on our way back up the 200 weekly MA will turn into resistance. We also have a bearish MACD cross, with an increasing bearish MACD-Histogram, indicating the growing bearish momentum.
The drawing is only for orientation; more bounces at the lower triangle line could happen.
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BTC/USD Weekly Chart (Scenario 2)
As seen in the image, there are couple of similarities with the 2014-2015 movement: after testing the 200 weekly MA, we have the price piercing through it, touching the lower base line of the triangle and closing the weekly candle under the 200 MA (white). If we're about to follow the Q2-Q3 2015 price action, than we might be at the end of the bearish cycle and some sideways movement under the 200 might follow, leading to a new rally. However, another way to look at it is to consider this 200 touchdown to be the first one, that happened in Jan. 2015. If so, we might continue hovering inside of the triangle, with at least one more bounce at the lower line of the triangle.
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