Hello Lads and Ladies,
today we are looking at BTCUSD and there was a reason why I did not do TA on it until now. I was waiting for it to make its classical move up with the 4h candle.
This $500 tall green candle was a move that we see quite often with BTCUSD. I personally expected a even taller candle up to the region of $6800 but that one might still have a chance.
Right now we are sitting right in between two very strong uptrend support lines, which are playing their game now as resistance. The relieving part about this is that we actually broke both of them and are locating ourselves in the middle right now.
Furthermore, we have touched and shortly broken this resistance a few days ago and we came back, even with making a very new low at $5800. The thing about supports and resistances it, the more you touch them the higher is the possibility to break it the next time.
I am trying to keep this short. So what might happen next?
As the next movement I see BTCUSD forming a wedge by keeping this resistance at $6250 with a possible low at $5950. As I believe more in the bullish situation, we would have to break this wedge going up and with that breaking the yellow downtrend resistance. The best scenario of doing so would be with a second big green candle up to $6800. By doing so we would reduce the chances significantly of seeing $5200.
As much everyone would love seeing this bullish scenario happening, there is a second bearish possibility. Again after forming a wedge, failing to break through resistance and falling down to to the next level of support at $5650 or concerning that movements downtrend to break through important supports, even $5200.
To get this straight out of the way. We need to turn that $6800 resistance into support to be in a RATHER safe region and reversing the trend. To do so, we would have to see push towards $7200 or at least $7000, this might happen very fast and within a few hours as we have seen BTCUSD pumping 1.5k within one hour before. ANYHOW, until this does not happen, we are NOT safe at all and could fall down ANYTIME, please keep this in mind.
Here is why I chose those levels of support.
and here the bigger picture.
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Cheers, Tomas