Step 1: Make friends with the rats…..
Yeah….so I’m not talking about a real well (sometimes it may seem like one to those on the roller-coaster ride called crypto trading tho)
It’s temptingly easy to get caught up in the hype surrounding the parabolic spikes and devastating crashes that the obsessive Coin Cap watchers have come to accept at the state of the crypto union. In this heady environment where unrealistically inflated expectations live parallel to unbridled fear of missing out (FOMO) it is important that the average person understand some fundamental forces driving the development of the Blockchain industry. Taking a longer view will help calm some nerves, steady some hands and allow those who are currently busy at work building the framework for our collective future (some of the most talented designers, engineers and philosophers of our time) to focus on the task at hand rather than being transfixed by the last 60 minutes of alligator teeth the Coinbase ETH dashboard so loves to torment us with.
Gartner is Ruthless…but usually right.
“ BLANK technology is going to solve every single one of humanity’s problems right now and forever!!!!” (Feel free to replace BLANK with any significant technological development of the past 40 years) Seems pretty ridiculous right? Now stick the term Blockchain in there….still seem crazy? Welcome to Gartners Hype Cycle
Blockchain as a technology is just starting to hit it’s stride. As with any new shiny bit of tech we automatically assume it’s going to fix all of our woes and throw everything we have (money included) at it. Later, once we inevitably realize that the fantastic claims early promoters promised will never materialize (yeah…blockchain will never come to your house and clean out your cats litter box for you) we get so disappointed that we decide the whole thing is at best a waste of time and at worst a scam and fall hopelessly into the “Well of Disillusionment”
In the heady final months of 2017, after cryptocurrencies have experienced such a remarkable run up over the past year it was hard to find anybody ready to talk about this coming challenge. We should have all been ready for the rude awakening January has gifted us with. We were not.
Though every downturn in prices may not represent the ultimate “Well of Disillusionment” it would serve us all well to get comfortable living and operating in the valley, because over the long term there’s going to be no avoiding it.
The dirty little secrete that nobody is telling you (or themselves for that matter) is: There are a million little disappointments heading toward us. Of all the ICO’s that are sure to be “The Next (insert favorite FANG stock here)” most will shrivel up and die. Somebody is going to swindle someone else out of a lot of their cryptos. (cough, sorry CoinDash, lookin’ at you there BitConnect) Big projects that look rock solid in the morning are going to turn to dust in the evening and leave everybody wondering “where do we go from here?” I’m not saying I’m excited about it, just that it’s gonna happen….might be good to be ready.
Does that mean the technology is fundamentally flawed? No, it just means that people get excited, act a little stupid and then are disappointed when things don’t go their way….tale as old as time.
Knowing this and preparing for the storm makes it easier to take a measured view of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and appreciate the real gift that it could be for humanity if we can move beyond and above the nasty Trough of Disillusionment and into the much more agreeable Slope of Enlightenment. This is the point where we can take a more realistic, productive approach to implementing the solutions Blockchain and DLT technologies promises.
Long term growth Growth vs. Short Term Volatility
An important challenge posed by the hope / fear cycle to new companies getting ready to dive into uncharted (but potentially lucrative) ICO waters is how to develop and grow a successful business in such a volatile environment. As is most often the case, the greatest bulwark against uncertainty and the madness of crowds is a rock-solid idea coupled with a competent and inspired team wielding a robust and viable MVP and a strong community of supporters.
Running the over 1300 current coin offerings currently available on Coin Market Cap through this seemingly simple rubric nets a much narrower list of viable projects. The process of launching an ICO has gotten exponentially easier over the past 12 months and this trend seems set to continue into 2018. There are snake oil salesmen out there. Before the industry hits its stride and truly goes mainstream there will be many more. Combine this sobering fact with the realization that in the not too distant future there is a very high probability that millions (if not billions) of eager, euphoric, frightened and for the most part ignorant users are going to have to be successfully on-boarded into this new system and you have a recipe for disaster.
The rapid growth of this industry and it’s fundamental importance to the lives of everyday people who have no idea what it really does or how it really works (find me 1 in a thousand who really understand how the money supply works) makes it so important for us in the crypto community to address this problem now, before it truly manifests itself. We need to help educate new users and build their knowledge base from the ground up. We need to do a better job of self regulation and we need to steady ourselves against the coming collapse that nobody wants to talk about but is surely on its way. Mark Twain said that “History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” The dot com bubble burst in a most spectacular way. It would be an over simplification to suggest that things will go the same way now as they did then. Parallels exist however; and we need to understand that the seeds of our own destruction lie in the unreasonable growth the industry has experienced in the past 12 months. Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies can fundamentally and drastically change the world for the better, but only if we take a sober and considered view of where we have come from and where it is we want to go.