How does “Overwinter” update for ZCash which was announced 3 days ago impact ZCL? Should you buy ZCL? If so at what price? We will go over ZCL briefly and few strategies for those of you who are intent on trying to catch the falling ZCL.
"Don't try to catch a falling knife until you have a handle on the risk" --Warren Buffet
The most important thing is that you are an educated investor who can classify this kind of investment properly and strategize your investment properly. I am not a big fan of posts which tell you to buy this crypto at this price and sell at another price. It hurts more people than it generally help’s and it doesn’t teach the average person how to think for themselves. I could make these types of posts and probably get more upvotes, but I would be doing more harm than good. This post is meant to EDUCATE not GUESS like most other posts.
If you want to understand then keep reading, if you want to know exactly what price to buy and sell, then go find someone on Steemit that will be happy to throw knives in the air for you to catch.
Before we look at ZCL, l just want to discuss 3 basic investing concepts that I feel many people don’t know about or forget when investing in something like ZCL.
1. Invest in winners and make money. INVEST IN A BUSINESS STRUCTURE, INVEST IN THE PROBLEM THEY ARE TRYING TO SOLVE, INVEST IN THE TEAM, INVEST IN THE UTILIZATION OF THE TOKEN NETWORK. When you invest you don’t always have to buy “cheap” things. Just because something has gone up doesn’t mean its bad. Good cryptocurrencies will keep going up in the long run.
2. “Rule 1: Never lose money, Rule 2: Never forget rule #1” –Warren Buffett This is the hardest thing for most people to do. If you want to make money, then you have to learn to not lose money.
This means that you need a strategy to keep yourself from losing money. For many people there is one problem that ends in losing money when investing. The problem is that they do not:
CLASSIFY TYPES OF POTENTIAL INVESTMENTS AND SPREAD THEIR INVESTMENTS OUT AMONG THOSE CLASSES PROPERLY.
I don’t care what your plan is, but make sure your plan assumes you will lose money on investments. If your plan is only about making money and not about not losing money you will probably lose money.
3. Don’t think about how much money you could make by investing everything you have in ZCL.
Think about what would happen if you invested all your money in something SIMILAR TO ZCL hundreds of times. Notice I did not say ZCL, but something similar to ZCL which is basically a high risk investment, even for cryptocurrency. It is likely that you will lose money taking a risk like this at some point.
Telling yourself “I will invest in this and that” IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY!
THINK OF AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY LIKE A RECIPE THAT DOESN’T GIVE YOU INGREDIENTS(CRYPTOCURRENCIES), BUT ONLY CATEGORIES OF INGREDIENTS AND HOW MUCH OF EACH CATEGORY TO USE.
Why am I telling you this? Because most people see something like ZCL and think that by investing in it up they are following an investment strategy and they are not. It is not a recipe if you cannot take it and give it to someone else who can use the same IDEAS to make money just like you. The recipe should not tell you what cryptocurrencies to invest in, but give you the ingredients to help you pick the types of cryptocurrencies to invest in. The recipe should also tell you the amount of each type of cryptocurrency to invest in. A good investment strategy will ALWAYS make money, no matter what exactly your investing in. So please understand ZCL won’t make you money, using ZCL as part of a bigger recipe will probably make you money.
ZCLASSIC (ZCL) IS A HIGH RISK INVESTMENT
There is no development team currently, the old team is working on Bitcoin Private(BTCP). No developer or team has come forward saying they plan to keep it up to date.
Before the announcement of BTCP the price of ZCL was $2 or less. The ONLY reason the price went up was because of people wanting BTCP and they had to buy ZCL to get it. People invested in ZCL because they wanted BTCP, not because they wanted ZCL.
The only realistic way that ZCL will rise again is if other people announce a fork similar to BTCP.
KEEP A FEW THINGS IN MIND:
Forking a zk-SNARK’s coin is much harder than forking other coins. So now you have a smaller group of people who could possibly do this.
Forking ZCL and Bitcoin with the same maximum supply would make a coin with low mining reward, high difficulty, and very few coins left to mine. This means that if ZCL does rise, it doesn’t automatically mean you can expect it to hit $200 again, or even $100, or even $50. The amount of bull shit a person wanting to set up a pump and dump scam for this coin would be insane.
It would get torn apart on ANN(Bitcointalk). Many of you are hoping for this to happen and sell at a profit. Keep reading to see some thing additional problems you probably have not considered.
BITCOIN WILL PROBABLY FLY SOON…AND THEN CRASH
There is a very good chance that Bitcoin will make an epic bull run within the next 6 months. Many people agree about this and it is publicized in a lot of places. Please understand that when this happens many people that have held on to ZCL will most likely dump it for one of two reasons:
1) Bitcoin offers a much better probability to at a minimum double your money this year in most people’s eyes.
2) When Bitcoin does make its run up, investors often dump their alt coin investments to not miss the high speed Bitcoin train. This often leaves some very good cryptocurrencies available at bargain prices where your almost guaranteed to make a profit. When that happen’s people will dump ZCL even at a loss.
I have mentioned the epic bubble that will form when Bitcoin does make its next big run. When that bubble collapses it will bring a crypto winter to almost all cryptocurrencies. We will recover, but it is going to be bad. Understand that many cryptos will drop to a fraction of what they are currently at.
THREATS
If I was part of a think tank hired by a big bank on how to kill Bitcoin because it is a threat, then I would look to inflate Bitcoin aggressively. It is in the big banks best interests for Bitcoin to cross $100,000 in the next year, because it will only speed up its death and burn all the new crypto investors badly. Those investors will go back to precious metals, stocks, and even happy to just hand their money over to banks for things like CD’s. It is easier to kill Bitcoin from within than it is from outside.
OVERWINTER IS COMING!
“Overwinter” is coming around June, followed by “Sapling” later in the year for ZCash. There are some incredible things that these updates are bringing to the cryptocurrency world. I will not go over these details in this post, but will be covering the updates in small parts as separate posts. If you don’t know why this is important... Remember that ZCL is a ZCash clone, meaning it uses the same technology and same updates as ZCash. This also means ZCL is nothing special by itself from a technology point of view.
Most importantly unless there is a development team which updates ZCL to add the updates “Overwinter” and “Sapling” will bring us, then forking ZCL would be forking old technology. This means if other forks occur they are more likely to be ZCash(ZCH) forks.
THE OVERWINTER ANNOUNCEMENT CAME ONLY THREE DAYS AGO ON 3/2/18.
There are a lot of people out there not aware or comprehending why its important and still telling people about how ZCL will surely go back up. If your idea in investing in ZCL was that it had a 5% chance to go back up to $200 or 10% chance to go back up to $40, then you need to both lower the maximum price it could hit from a pump and dump as well as decrease the percent chance it will ever happen.
If you couple the danger of “Overwinter” and “Sapling” causing ZCash forks instead of ZCL forks, causing a further ZCL crash, then followed by a general cryptocurrency market crash when Bitcoin collapses, then you should take the possibility of ZCL being pennies in a year as a possibility.
HOW RISKY IS ZCL?
I would say that outside of a complete scam coin, it is one of the riskiest investments out there. In terms of high risk crypto investments at the current ZCL price its at the bottom of my list to buy more. There are many other high risk cryptocurrencies out there with a much better chance of similar returns that I do not understand why anyone would invest at the current ZCL price.
HOW TO INVEST IN ZCL
If you really want to invest in ZCL, then do it in a smart way. DO NOT PUT EVERYTHING YOU HAVE INTO IT! Most people should not be putting more than 10% of money available for retirement/investments, into cryptocurrency.
Vitalik Buterin the founder of Ethereum got many upset for his comments about not investing heavily into cryptocurrency recently. I don’t think he did it to manipulate the market, but because he sees the bull run coming for crypto’s and also sees a massive collapse that could cost a lot of people everything they own. Remember Warren Buffett’s #1 rule to investing? “Don’t lose money”
In 10 years it will be different and companies will not be companies anymore, but be structured around token networks(cryptocurrencies). The crypto market will be huge and more stable. At that point you can invest a lot more into crypto, but for now, be smart. I can say that there are a lot of crypto whales already making plans to pull everything out of crypto towards the peak of the next Bitcoin bull run and put it into traditional investments.
ITS BETTER YOU PUT THE GLOVES ON, NOT SOMEONE ELSE…
There is a tried and true method to help you in not losing money when investing in high risk investments and that’s using gloves. Take what you are going to invest and split it into 3 piles. If you are going to invest at the current price because you don’t want to miss a revival, then put only 1 pile of the 3 into ZCL. Then wait and if it drops more, for example down to the $1-$2 range, then use 1 more pile to buy it again. For your final pile you should wait and spend it if ZCL drops to under $0.25 or $0.10. If you want to get dirty, please put your gloves on first. This is why people like Buffett make money, they know how to manage it.
CLIFFNOTES (Yes, I'm talking to you! The person who scrolled to the bottom of the post without reading anything above!)
ZCL was already a very high risk investment post fork. After the “Overwinter” announcement it is an even bigger risk. There is a CHANCE to make money, but it comes with GREAT risk. If you do take the risk at least put some gloves on first and try not to get cut.
RETHINK RISK
I want you to rethink risk. Everyone wants to take big risks and make big money. For a lot of people they think risk MUST be buying something risky. Did you know from risk management point of view, under certain circumstances a large company leaving large amounts of money just sitting around is actually a risk? After reading through this post, think about risk from another angle. Think about my sharing the idea of using gloves when investing.
NOT INVESTING IS ALSO A RISK THAT CAN MAKE YOU A LOT OF MONEY.
I cannot tell you when Bitcoin will make its bull run and when it will come crashing down. But I can tell you it is very likely to happen. By investing only 1/3 of what you were planning to invest you risk not making money on the 2/3 you are holding back. Now think about what opportunity you will have to make money if everything comes crashing down after making a big bull run because you took the risk of not investing. When things crash, they will not just go down to the correct price, but probably much lower than they should. Because of taking the risk of not investing everything you will have a chance at making money or at least breaking even by having money left to buy at such low prices.
Personally, I have not sold all of my ZCL, but I don’t plan to buy any more of it unless it drops under 25 cents. For me the “Overwinter” and “Sapling” announcement killed the chances of ZCL making a comeback to highly unlikely.
