Daily TL;DR - January 22nd (Your One Stop Daily News)

DAILY TL;DR W/ CHESLINK
JANUARY 22ND – 26TH
January 22nd

1. BTC NEWS
2. IN OTHER NEWS

MARKETCAP ANALYSIS

Recap from 11/20
Market Cap: $243,311,416,536
24h Vol: $7,403,167,283
BTC Dominance: 56.2%

As of 12/31
Market Cap: $592,941,301,681
24h Vol: $33,207,433,786
BTC Dominance: 38.0%

As of 1/8
Market Cap: $743,509,110,252
24h Vol: $49,897,768,988
BTC Dominance: 34.2%

As of 1/15
Market Cap: $644,874,662,903
24h Vol: $38,996,461,258
BTC Dominance: 34.4%

As of 1/17
Market Cap: $547,619,005,202
24h Vol: $58,838,546,348
BTC Dominance: 34.9%

As of 1/19
Market Cap: $578,716,549,272
24h Vol: $33,601,889,009
BTC Dominance: 34.1%

As of 1/22
Market Cap: $508,289,748,517
24h Vol: $30,645,248,592
BTC Dominance: 35.0%

BTC NEWS

Bitcoin Monte Carlo Simulation for 2018
• https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

Basically, in a Monte Carlo simulation in finance we assume that the future behavior of the price of an asset will be similar to its past behavior, and we generate a lot of random versions of that future, called random walks, similar to the past. That’s done taking random samples from the past and stacking them together to build each one of those random walks.

It looks like the most likely price is somewhere between $24K and $90K. To find that price more precisely, we could do several things. One of them is simply calculating the 50% percentile of the distribution of final prices: $ 58843. Another one is estimating the probability density function with Kernel Density Estimation and finding the price corresponding to the maximum of that function.

It’s important to note that this estimation doesn’t have to be taken to the letter and it’s better used as a way to find confidence intervals on where the future distribution where be. In this case an 80% confidence interval for the price of bitcoin would be between $13,200 and $271,277. Another way to look at this is that the chance that the price at the end of the year will be below 13,200 is the same as that of it being above $271,277 (if the price moves in the future similarly to how it did the past).

In particular, if we want to calculate the probability that that price will be equal or lower than today’s (Jan 20th 2018 - $12951) it comes out to 9.84%.

BitLicense for New York
• https://www.coindesk.com/contortions-compliance-life-new-yorks-bitlicense/

In June 2015, in a race to be a first mover in the space, the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) enacted the BitLicense regulatory framework, a licensing regime that covers substantially all "virtual currency business activity" to the extent it touches New York or its residents.

As such, the BitLicense has prompted flight from New York by larger players such as Bitfinex and Shapeshift and has had a chilling effect on others acting in an abundance of caution.

In all, uncertainty as to the reach of the licensing requirement has left many companies with three options: avoid doing business in New York entirely, attempt to structure a business around the law, or engage in potential or outright non-compliance with the law.
Based on the fact that DFS has received so few applicants to date, and has only five rejected applications on file, one could infer that many are electing non-compliance.

IN OTHER NEWS

ARK Launches Blockchain Creation Deployer
• https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptomagic/ark-summary-as-team-announces-first-steps-towards-point-click-blockchain-through-launch-of-ark-deployer

It is now possible for developers to launch their own blockchain in a matter of minutes using the new Ark Deployer script.

The fact that Ark is currently compatible with 12 of the 18 program languages it intends to use, means that this could be an absolute game changer. (Java, Python, PHP/Laravel and Ruby are just some of the 12 that are live now).

Ark was one of the first blockchain projects to incorporate in the European Union. The Ark ACES project allows ARK to interact with Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum blockchains. This enables Ark to use the features of other blockchains such as Smart Contracts.

First Blockchain Agricultural Trade SUCCESS
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/higher-than-expected-louis-dreyfus-reports-results-of-first-blockchain-agricultural-trade

One of the leading global commodity traders Louis Dreyfus Co. (LDC) has stated that its first venture into Blockchain produced results “even higher” than expected, Financial Times reportsMonday, Jan. 22.

“The blockchain technology has the potential to significantly optimise administrative processes around international trade. We are excited that this test was succesfully [sic] completed and that we can move to further exploring the added value and use of the blockchain technology.”
Within the agriculture and food supply chain spheres, various experiments have been attempted to incorporate Blockchain as a means of improving transparency, specifically for products where such transparency is in demand, such as coffee, location-tracked crops and livestock.

OriginTrail - Supply Chain Blockchain Protocol
• https://coinjournal.net/origintrail-raises-us22-5m-supply-chains-blockchain-protocol/

The roadmap for OriginTrail’s growth includes the development of its decentralized network and a plug-and-play solution, suitable for all product supply chains, based on a mission to bring interoperability and information integrity. Using OriginTrail, all stakeholders will be able to securely share their data and keep sensitive data fully encrypted at all times. By supporting global standards for data exchange (GS1, IoT, compliance standards), OriginTrail will assure compatibility with existing ERP systems, making implementation process quick and efficient.

The OriginTrail protocol will run on an off-chain decentralized peer-to-peer network, called the OriginTrail Decentralized Network (ODN). It will enable peers on the network to negotiate services, transfer, process and retrieve data, verify its integrity and availability and reimburse the provider nodes. The project was implemented to enhance transparency, safety, fairness, and trustworthiness in food supply chains by allowing customers to verify the traceability of every item sold online.

OriginTrail is part of the Bits x Bites food tech accelerator program and has already established itself within the food supply chain space. The pilot project with Chinese online food store Yimishiji was in November awarded by the Walmart Food Safety Collaboration Center and admitted into its Innovation Pipeline.

IMF Calling for International Crypto Discussion
• https://www.coindesk.com/imf-calls-for-international-cooperation-on-cryptocurrencies/

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), an organization of the United Nations that aims to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability, has called for global coordination on cryptocurrencies, warning of the risks of surging cryptocurrency prices.

Previously, the IMF has advocated a balanced approach on cryptocurrency regulation. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the organization, said in September of 2017 that cryptocurrencies may give traditional government-issued currencies a "run for their money" and it is "not wise" to ignore them.
She added that cryptocurrencies would bring "massive disruptions" and warned that central banks and financial services need to pay closer attention to the technology.

"We want to make sure that bad people cannot use these currencies to do bad things," U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin added.

NEO Critiques on Reddit
• https://www.reddit.com/r/NEO/comments/7rwwsk/some_good_points_that_address_critiques_of_neo/

Recently, the following critiques of $NEO have gained traction on Twitter & Reddit without appropriate response:
NEO's consensus network is and always will be centralised 2) Consensus nodes need to be centrally approval 3) The number of consensus nodes is too small.

We'll start with NEO's consensus algorithm Delegated Byzantine Fault Tolerance (dBFT).
dBFT shares similiarities with dPoS:
Consensus nodes are elected by $NEO holders (1 NEO = 1 vote) 2) Consensus is achieved when >66% of all CNs agree on the next block.

BFT & PoW consensus algorithms each come with their own advantages and disadvantages, summarised in the comparison table. The important differences are in:
Node identity management
Scalability (no. of nodes)
Performance (throughput).

If the multi-year effort is successful, NEO will be a global, distributed, highly scaleable, high finality (unforkable) & high concurrency network powering Smart Economy.
Owning $NEO is literally owning a share of this network and all $GAS fees. I'm willing to take the risk.

PoW vs. BFT:
http://vukolic.com/iNetSec_2015.pdf
NEO Consensus:
http://docs.neo.org/en-us/node/consensus.html
NEO Coopetition:
https://medium.com/proof-of-working/decentralization-from-coopetition-b10d7ce3b9d

VISA + ICON?
• https://medium.com/@gregjanderson20/visa-secure-banking-with-icon-d915f9b0b5bb

One of the most intriguing rumblings brewing is a potential partnership with VISA. Speculation is that VISA could be looking for a solid entry into crypto space, while keeping the volatile nature of cryptocurrency in check. The way this could potentially happen is the VISA card working more like a secured credit card instead of a credit-based card. ICX holders would be able to apply for a card, and utilize their available balance in the upcoming wallet to use for purchases around the world.

Keep in mind, ICON has been working on vending machines and ATMs in local college campuses for a while now. Being able to translate this into a partnership with VISA would give ICON the global reach they are aiming for, and would quickly turn them into the dominant force.

However, VISA recently announce they have no intentions of working with any cryptocurrencies. We’ll see how this plays out.

VeChain – Cryptocurrency Disaster Recovery Plan
• https://medium.com/@vechainofficial/vechain-passes-the-first-ever-cryptocurrency-disaster-recovery-plan-from-pwc-f69ccf238a7a

VeChain spearheaded the first Cryptocurrency Disaster Recovery Plan (CDRP) that meets the demands of accredited firms and approved by PwC. This is the first of its kind in the world and sets a standard for corporate level DRP and risk management of internal or external controls on blockchain solution and cryptocurrency assets both on digital and physical wallets.

The criteria of this plan had to ensure a large volume of daily transactions in large amounts, referencing SOX 404, System and Organisation Controls (SOC), ISO 27001 as well as the key lifecycle management controls from WebTrust standards to comply with the needs of large enterprise users and meet regulatory requirements.

They covered 3 varying levels of attack/risk. By completing this process, to the standards set by PwC and global enterprises, VeChain Thor and VeChain are one step further to cater to mass adoption.

National Research Council of Canada Trialing Ethereum
• http://cryptobible.io/nrc-canada-trialing-ethereum-blockchain/

The National Research Council of Canada (NRC), a government initiative, is trialing the ethereum blockchain for recording government contracts. For the pilot, the NRC is partnering with blockchain startup Bitaccess to use its Catena platform for publishing information on government grants and contributions over the open-source blockchain.

Four Cryptos that Will Help Ethereum Live Forever
• https://medium.com/@rfusseryiii/erc-20-and-voltron-the-4-limbs-that-will-make-ethereum-live-forever-and-make-your-pockets-fatter-699a19b65c7a

Plasma: The ERC-20 token OMG is currently undergoing development of a plasma-enabled exchange known as the OMG network, and according to the Omise Go team, the decentralized exchange “can support all the world’s currencies plus crypto for >1B users simultaneously.” This technology relies on Sharding, which cannot be implemented until Ethereum’s “Casper” update is live.

The Raiden solution exists as the asset “Raiden Network”. Raiden may have fallen out of the top 100 market cap assets, and perhaps IOTA is more promising for machine-machine transactions… but if ERC-20 remains the de-facto standard, there’s a chance we’ll see a comeback.

Request Network is the “Future of Commerce”, “Paypal 2.0", and one of the most promising ways for crypto to gain rapid adoption. The idea is simple, make a tool that converts crypto to cash quickly and easily. ‘Easily’ cannot be understated. Through the development of external apps funded by the team’s community hub, you can expect Request to be implemented by individuals, small businesses, and even empires.

Request has partnered with the Kyber Network, a decentralized exchange that will allow Request to integrate its platform to the high liquidity that comes from active markets. From the same article, assuming Kyber has only 5% dominance in the (very competitive) space of crypto exchanges, that would easily place Kyber at a market cap of $1.2B, roughly 2.4x the current market cap. That means you can expect Kyber’s price to increase from it’s current $3.72 to a healthy $8.90. That’s a pretty safe bet, too. The mainnet launches Q1 2018.

The Smart Contract Connectivity Problem, is the inability of a smart contract to interact with any external data feed, or other resource that is run outside the node network in which the smart contract itself is executed.
And here’s the solution:
ChainLink is secure blockchain middleware that allows smart contracts on various networks to connect with the critical resources they need to become useful for 90% of use cases.

TEPCO Invests in Electron (Ethereum Based Startup)
• https://www.ccn.com/decentralized-future-japans-biggest-energy-giant-invests-ethereum-blockchain-startup/

In an announcement on Friday, TEPCO revealed its investment in London-based blockchain startup Electron toward the end of 2017. With revenues of over $456 billion, TEPCO is Japan’s largest utility provider servicing millions of homes in Japan alongside subsidiaries and affiliates in 8 other countries. TEPCO said the two companies will explore solutions to make away with today’s centralized infrastructure to usher in a decentralized blockchain platform for energy transactions.

Electron has long touted the benefits of using blockchain technology to upgrade the energy industry’s infrastructure (some 30-40 years old at this point) for efficient power sharing with major cost savings.

Using the Ethereum blockchain, Electron demoed a platform simulating data from 53 million metering points at individual homes from 60 energy providers and proved that energy supplier switches could be executed up to 20 times faster than current switching rates. The same ‘smart meter’ service could also be deployed to other utilities including telecom and water, convincing one former executive from major European utility provider Npower to join Electron’s board.

FidentiaX (FDX)
• https://steemit.com/blockchain/@quoineliquid/quoine-lists-fidentiax-on-qryptos

FidentiaX is building the World’s 1st Marketplace for Tradable insurance policies by leveraging blockchain technology.

Most people do not realize that insurance policies with cash value can be traded in the market for a higher cash value, that is, an individual could sell his policies to a 3rd party instead of surrendering the policy. In 2014, policies lapses and surrenders were in excess of US$112billion in the US alone, of which it was estimated US$57billion could have been resold in the open market.

FidentiaX’s vision is to create a trading marketplace and repository of insurance policies for the masses by leveraging blockchain technology. This blockchain-powered marketplace will provide a trustless, immutable, auditable and transparent environment to disrupt the status quo.