Generally, the crypto community is pretty optimistic.
Those we predicted a bear market earlier in the year were hated, but they turned out to be correct. In fact, anybody who has been in crypto for years could see the pattern, and many people sold for a profit, if only to get back in during the spring or summer when they expected the market to pick up.
Those who got in at the later portion of the bull run during 2017 saw their investments lose them money, which caused them to panic and sell. Those who made money throughout the entire bull run likely either sold for a profit, or they needed to sell portions of their bags to pay for taxes.
During the tail end of the downtrend that we just experienced, we were hearing much more good news than we were bad, but the natural cyclical nature of the market would run its course regardless. However, as the good news continued to come, eventually the people who wanted to sell ended up pulling the trigger, and as more buyers started to enter the market, as some would say, the shorts got rekt.
If we look at the current situation, we can assume that most people have finished their taxes, and those who were looking to get into the market but didn't have any funds to spare might look to make an entry with the money they will soon receive from their returns.
Ultimately, everything is setting up to make a pretty big run. While I think a lot of big money might enter the market, don't expect those trades to happen on the markets that most would be trading on, as many will likely be private deals that won't directly change the prices. However, that change will be indirect over time, and it seems as though many average investors will look to build positions in the coming months.
If we look back to last year, this time was an accumulation phase, and we saw gradual price increases, only to have a huge run up in prices over the summer. It was almost impossible to lose money, as so many new investors were coming into the market. We saw many entering the market buying Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum, and the other altcoins quickly followed suit, capitalizing not only on the gains of these coins, but the general FOMO involved with coins that have lower market caps.
We also see a seasonal change in behavior and spending tendencies, as well as social tendencies. For example, I live in a city where people tend to stay inside and socialize less during the winter, as well as save their money, where the opposite is true in the summer. Hearing friends talk about how much money they're making on their crazy investments is often how people start researching crypto, as they are generally not taking interest in online articles about things they know little to nothing about. I also work in an industry where I see huge increases in volume of customers during the summer months, and a general optimism on life due to the weather conditions and biological reactions to this stimuli. While people might have less money to spend on their investments due to this behavior, their willingness to throw money around, wherever that money is going, tends to increase significantly.
While this might not be a factor in some states, it is undeniable to the environment that I am in, and these factors, along with a lack of selling, tax return time approaching, and great discounts on crypto currencies across the board, we could see the biggest market cap increase that the world of crypto has ever seen in these coming months.
Oh, and the cherry on top might be the huge increase in public awareness of crypto just in the last year.
At the end of the day, nobody really knows what is going to happen, but there are a lot of signs that are pointing to this being a great buying opportunity. The pessimistic attitudes seem to be diminishing daily, and we are already seeing pretty significant price increases lately. For example, I analyzed the BCH price about one week ago while it sat at below $700, and it is now hovering close to $1000. I think we've already started liftoff, folks.
Am I optimistic? Absolutely.
Hold onto your hats.