Earlier this year I posted this question on Facebook: "Is the train about to leave the station?" As events bore out that is exactly what happened. Now the question is "Is cryptocurrency about to enter hyper growth?" As with all bubbles, most recently the internet bubble of the late 1990's, and the classic South Sea bubble of the 1700's, a key ingredient for hyper growth of company valuations is the reaction of the general public to events. Once the public is convinced that it may miss an enormous opportunity, greed kicks in and everybody jumps in. Typically, during this time companies, are formed for just the purpose of selling "stock" to the irrational public. At the end of the day, only a few are left standing and much of the public is left holding the bag.
Today a story appeared on nbcnews.com "Middle America is Crazy in Love with Bitcoin." One can make the argument that the public interest is accelerating. As they say, when you hear your cab driver brag about how much cryptocurrency he or she owns, then you might consider we are approaching the peak before the fall. Clearly, we are not there yet, but it is undeniable public awareness is growing rapidly. How long the hyper growth phase will last is anybody's guess. My guess is that it will last a few years. Meanwhile, I am continuing to build a diverse portfolio of top cryptocurrencies but not betting the farm on the outcome. For me, this is a long term play and a speculative one at best. The blockchain is real...but there is no way really to gauge what the true value is of any token. There is only supply and demand and transaction growth. Monetary value is very difficult to pin down.
I firmly believe the hyper growth phase is beginning. When it will end in the coming years is anyone's guess.