I think you have a very good chance of being correct with your forecast. A reversion to the mean is as characteristic of price action as anything. An overshoot is not only possible, but very common. In any event, your green line marks the ideal zone for long term entries into crypto, and most certainly the place where no-one should sell. (That of course referring to the averages themselves, or well balanced diversifies portfolios - individual tokens with that same chart pattern always carry the risk of going to zero.)