Intro
I published a video on this but their are two big things I want to address in this article the NEO distribution and Bitcoin hard fork. These two events are crucially important to understand in the month of October because all cryptocurrency prices are related in some aspect. (Please skip accordingly everything is labeled I cover NEO first then Bitcoin incase you care for one over the other)
Here is the video I made on the information in this article(subscribe):
NEO and GAS Distribution unlocked October 16, 2017
I know you've been through a lot NEO holders and I see the moon at the end of the tunnel for NEO, I want you to know i've road this recent Chinese low along with you personally. However we need to address a fact from the NEO white paper and that is distribution of NEO tokens this is a important snapshot from NEO's official GitHub on the subject:
Source: https://github.com/neo-project/docs/blob/master/en-us/index.md
The important information to take from this is the understanding of how NEO tokens will be released, basically their are 100 million NEO tokens which where divided in half. The first 50 million NEO tokens where released during the initial crowed funding which is what we currently see on the market today. The second portion was stored the first year under lock and key and considered untouchable, however they become unlocked October 16, 2017. I don't see NEO releasing all these coins initially on the market but their are a few crucial points I want to make.
How many could we see 50million NEO released to on the market?
In all we are looking at a complete possibility of 35 million tokens entering the market as the last 15 million are to be stored for a rainy day. Now this part of the article is speculation and my opinion but I personally can consider this outcome from their plans listed in the white paper.
10million tokens will be used to motivate NEO developers and people on the council - I can see 10%-5% of this number enter the market the first year.
10million tokens will be used to motivate developers of the NEO ecosystem - I can see 10%-25%+ of these entering the market the first year. Mainly for the reason that these developers working on the NEO ecosystem are typically companies as well, they will use this prize in NEO to hire employees and expand their own business.
15million tokens will be used to cross-invest in NEO launched businesses - I can differently see 20%-30%+ being released into the market as these start up companies are going to use this NEO as their initial investment cashing out for their own business.
This is all dependent on how fast NEO releases these tokens from their plans as these numbers might increase or decrease based on this factor. In total I think its fair to assume we could be looking at 4.5million-8million new NEO tokens enter the market the first year.(End of Opinion section)
8million+ GAS Tokens Released
Now their is also a crucial part most people aren't considering and that is GAS the off product of NEO in the white paper it states this "According to this release curve, 16% of the GAS will be created in the first year" so lets do the math. Just like NEO their is a 100million token cap on GAS.
100million * 16% = 16million
Here is the interesting part if their is only 50million tokens released on the market we are left with ~8million GAS that should be created which adds up to the current information as seen bellow:
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/gas/
The company at NEO still has ~8million GAS created from the 50million NEO held under lock and key. And I couldn't find any information on NEO's white paper on how they plan to distribute that would love more information so I can clarify this. As it is today It costs someone $15,000 to create a smart contract with NEO at the ~$30 GAS price (you need to use GAS to create the smart contract). Back to my opinion, I can see NEO the company unloading their GAS onto the market to incentives companies who want to create a smart contract system getting that $15,000 price down.
Long term I am very bullish on NEO however short term these are serious concerns I have and wanted to make public as I believe my safest bet is to cash out now and rebuy NEO if it drops in October for these reasons securing a bigger stake than I was able to acquire before.
Bitcoin Hardfork Coming October 25, 2017
Were finally moving onto the crypto king itself Bitcoin, now a hardfork is nothing new to bitcoin as we've experienced it before but we need to remember the down trend that came the days before the hardfork as seen bellow:
Where bitcoin dropped to close of half of its evaluation, although I don't expect such a drastic drop from this coming hard fork I do expect the bitcoin's price to become bearish these coming days.
The Chart and Price today
As today we are at a very curtail price point in determining the outcome for October as far as bitcoin is concerned, if we close much lower than we did yesterday I can see the bear locking its teeth into the Bitcoin for the first half of October. Personally i think the events resounding NEO and the Bitcoin fork is possible to see a low of $3,600 which would be healthy overall.
Final Words and Recap
As you can see I put a lot of time and energy into my work, and you might not agree with my prediction and this is completely fine you are your own investor. I tried to precent this article based on the facts with as little fudding as possible and added my assessment from the information i've researched. At the end of the day my username is Crypto Potluck for a reason, I want this to be a community of information and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the information i've presented and your plans for the month of October.
Both Bitcoin and NEO are staples in the crypto market and I expect nothing but greatness long term. This article is only addressing October and how i'm playing this crypto market game based off the facts at hand.
- If you found anything from this article interesting please upvote its free for you and gives me the opportunity to continue my work and dive more in depth as i did in this article.
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