No, I didn't make a typo here. I do mean a bullish market, right after 1/8, when UASF is executed. You may find that crazy but I can explain why. It happens in history, and it may happen again right after one of the most influential moment in cryptocurrencies' history.
In this year, the Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) has been raising the rate to prevent the economy from overheating. As we all presume, a hike in rate will have adverse effects on the stock market. Since the cost of borrowing increases, people will have less disposable income to invest in stocks, companies will borrow less to boost the revenue and eventually it leads to a plunge in the stock prices. And usually, it is actually a self-fulfilling prophecy. When everyone thinks that the prices will go down, they will sell their holdings and the prices eventually really drop. However, when you study the reasons at the end, you can hardly define whether the drop came from the economic factors, or just the expectations of people.
Unexpectedly, when FED announced the raise of rate this year earlier, a general increase in stock prices was observed in the market. S&P 500 has performed better than yesterday at the end of the day and people wondered why.
Turns out people have already digested the news before the announcement by the FED. As people have long been expecting the raise in rate and have done their actions in the market accordingly. At the end, the market did not react normally on the announcement date, people even thought that it was a good timing to 'buy low'.
It is possible that similar scenario will be seen after the UASF on 1/8. We can observe that the prices of cryptocurrencies plummet in these two weeks and one of the major reason is the uncertainty from the UASF. People might have digested the news and are ready to welcome the impacts in the coming weeks. When people have expected that coming, there will not be panic sells nor a risk of a plummeting market.
In fact, there is a small possibility for the Bitcoin to split. We can explain it by the Game Theory. The large groups of miners are the major factors that affect the games. They opposed the proposal of the core developers as it was not beneficial to them. Now, the situation has came to a critical point that the Bitcoin might split if two parties do not compromise. However, a split of Bitcoin means a possible plummet in value, and that's definitely terrible to the miners as they are the one who are holding many Bitcoin. Eventually, it is the best for them to compromise and remain one single type of Bitcoin in the market.
Therefore, a bullish market is not nonsense after all. The cryptocurrency market may have suffered from the uncertainty in advance of the UASF and thus have reached the lowest point. We have learnt from history that a bullish market can come after some presumed bad news. Apart from that, the possibility of a split is low and investors may become optimistic after 1/8. In short, it is not the end of cryptocurrencies, it may even be another start of the skyrocketing prices!
The article is based on personal opinion and investment can be risky. Assess your risk tolerance level before any kind of investments.
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