ICO and ETH risk assessment
As I am trying to emphasize in my last articles, there is one factor which drove Ethereum price up in last few months, ICO:
WARNING - Why I think that market is topping right now. How to prepare for the upcoming storm.
Why ETH is going to crash sharply this week. Why I'm NOT buying Status, Skincoin and CIVIC.
3 X ICO this week
Status launching in 1880 blocks: https://contribute.status.im/
They are going to introduce interesting system for their ICO based on Dynamic Ceilings.
https://blog.status.im/distribution-dynamic-ceilings-e2f427f5cca
Although they claim it will prevent whales from sending big transactions, It took me 10 seconds to come up witn an idea how I would go around it if I was a whale. Just use script to flood the contract address with small transactions, like 5-50 ETH. You don't need a rocket science because even Parity has a build in option to send X amount of transaction with X amount of ETH at block X. I'm not impressed Status.
The initial ceiling is 12M CHF but we don't know what are other ceilings so I expect the max cap to be around 50M USD.
Skincoin in 29 hours: https://skincoin.org/
This will be much smaller than Status and Civic because they are not greedy and want just 10M USD. ETH won't give a damn thing about that demand.
http://icorating.com/project/94/Skincoin
Sportocin are already there and there is too big competition to buy this. Plus it's ERC20 which implies all risks connected with already struggling Ethereum blockchain.
Civic in 30 hours: https://tokensale.civic.com/
This one is interesting because eventually it can end up like the BAT ICO. Maximum cap on crowdsale is 33M USD for 33% of tokens so we already have market cap of 100M.
http://icorating.com/project/96/Civic
They will for sure soak up some ETH volume as I predicted this morning after I saw the Status announcement on Slack:
How easy you can predict ETH movements with ICO! - check my example from an hour ago
nailed it!:
https://steemit.com/ethereum/@kyriacos/the-magnificent-ethereum-machine
Of course there are many more ICO's coming but most of them are much less hyped and some of them are really sketchy and smell like a scam just to steal some easy money.
Who's banking on Bancor?
I bought it. I even think it will give us some nice profits after tokens gets released.
But Bancor is also another huge risk factor for Ethereum with over 140 million USD worth Ethers trapped in its contract but not for long. Trading should be already possible but they postponed if for ,,few days".
Check this article written buy the guy who found that The DAO was compromised:
http://hackingdistributed.com/2017/06/19/bancor-is-flawed/
Another black swan?