Neucoin aimed for the stars, and dramatically failed. But could this lost cause actually stage a big comeback?

After gaining early backing from private investors followed by a reasonably successful crowdsale, Neucoin's grand plans to chase mainstream adoption through a 'freemium' model of partnering with established sites to give away free coins to their users looked to have some promise. But things have been almost entirely downhill from there.

The price fizzled at launch, and entered a long down trend. Overblown marketing rhetoric some people thought had strayed into outright lying, lack of engagement with the community, and concerns over the massive pre-mine being staked by the foundation and their inability to distribute it quickly enough led to a long downtrend which saw the price continually breaking new lows.

But for the last month and a bit the Neucoin price has been rising, in what looks like a fairly stable if rather gentle uptrend. Could it be that this coin, once written off by almost everyone, is about to stage a comeback? Although it's far from certain, I think that may be exactly what is about to happen, and here is why…

1 - It does have genuine mainstream users

Ok, so the claims from Neucoin's marketing team that they have hundreds of thousands of users is based on what you might call 'creative accounting'. Most of these people probably interacted with NEU through a third party site or app without ever actually setting out to deliberately create a wallet or make a transaction themselves. I get that, and I wasn't impressed with the way these figures were presented either.

But at the same time, there aren't many cryptocurrencies that can claim to have a prominent integration into one of the top 10,000 most popular websites in the world. Neucoin is heavily promoted on Jango.com, which currently has an Alexa rank of 8661. What's more, Jango gets the biggest part of its traffic from the United States, which is generally considered to be the most valuable of the major markets per user.

Combine that with a Facebook app which has had tens of thousands of users and you get a footprint which is much larger than that of many of the top coins – and this is from a coin ranked well outside the top 100 with a market cap of only slightly over $400,000.

2 - Comebacks are common in Crypto

I've seen it so many times before.

Here is how it goes:

A coin enters a long downtrend, during which the vast majority of people sell. At some point all of the weak hands have already sold, and only die-hard, long time supporters, and the kind of whales who can't sell into a small market anyway have any coins left to sell. These are the 'strong hands' and it takes a lot for them to start selling.

With nobody selling, the coin's price begins to rise – and often it can go up a long way before sellers re-enter the market.

3 – Charts don't lie

Over a month of gradual upward movement on the price, straight after a plateau at the bottom of the downtrend, and the charts are now showing a definite uptrend. Although volume is still very low, it is significantly improved from the all time lows. All of this indicates to me that there is a good chance that the coin is genuinely entering a new medium term price trend.

Conclusion:

I wouldn't put a lot of money on this one as it is still high risk, but its definitely an interesting punt for contrarian investors.

Neucoin is currently traded on Bittrex