9 months ago, September 2017, I made a post asking what you all thought of the market sentiment at the time. My own sense was that we were still at denial, while some others suggested panic and desperation etc. even suggested that we were between hope and optimism.
As it turned out, the market had already bottomed for Bitcoin at that point. In three months it went on to multiply in price by 6 times.
There are studies which show that contrarianism outperforms other investment strategies[1,2], but of course no strategy is completely reliable. There are two ways in which contrarians can generally fail.
Failing to assess the market sentiment. We all live in our own little bubbles of information. We don't interact with all the market participants, and thus don't have access to the full information about market sentiment, leading to the possibility of misjudgement. We are also quite biased and inclined to see the sentiment that supports the outcome we expect.
Sentiment fails to predict the outcome. As Jeff Bezos puts it, “You just have to remember that contrarians are usually wrong.”. In the long run contrarians generally do better, not by being right more often but by exploiting the inefficiencies of the market introduced by human nature. Successful investing isn't really about being right more often than wrong, it's about how much you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong.
Anyway...
After destroying any scientific credibility by priming you all with a blog post, I'd like to ask where you feel the sentiment is today. This question can be applied for Bitcoin, Steem and cryptocurrency in general.
[1] http://www.thomasmoeller.net/thomasmoeller/Lone_Star_program_files/utd_paper.pdf
[2] http://studenttheses.cbs.dk/bitstream/handle/10417/376/henriette_wennicke.pdf?sequence=1