In the last 24 hours, the price of Ripple has interacted with the minor range support and has now broken it coming from 0.4367$ to 0.42256$ where it is currently sitting on the next horizontal support level.
This horizontal level is considered a key support level because it was the first level on which the price found support after the initial surge from 0.25$ to 0.85$ and from there on went to create the all-time high at 2.8$. Zooming out to the daily chart we can see the significance.
So as you can see if the price breaks this level the next significant support would be in the vicinity of the 0.286$ in a steep downfall manner. In order to conclude what is likely going to happen lets further inspect the current range.
Analysis
I have zoomed into the hourly chart and labeled my count which I will explain the following paragraphs.
After the impulse wave, 5 ended on the levels where the price is now, an intermediate WXY correction occurred. That was very clear to me, but the next structure was very complicated. After that first intermediate WXY (orange), another minor 12345 impulse wave occurred followed by a minor wxyxz correction followed by and ABCDE. All of these three are composing parts of the second intermediate WXY (green).
Now after this I am expecting another third intermediate WXY correction in the opposite direction which would be the third structure composing the primary WXY correction.
Zooming out on the daily chart I will show you why.
The price of Ripple has been moving in a classical impulse-correction manner from the beginning of the bear market. You can see that the price pathway respected that pattern perfectly which is why now after the last impulse to the downside ended I am expecting another corrective 3 wave move in the opposite direction of the trend which is up.
On the hourly chart, I have pointed my arrow to the first downtrend significant level which would be somewhere around 0.495$ but as you can see on the daily chart I have pointed it to the next significant level which is this descending channels resistance line around 0.556$. I did this in order to point out that the corrective wave Y that is expected can go anywhere between those levels.
After this last Y wave ends I am expecting the key support level to be broken as the downtrend continues and another 12345 impulse wave to the downside starts potentially to the mentioned 0.28$ area. I have copied the bar patterns from the second impulse wave and as you can see they fit perectly onto the projection as they interact with all of the significant horizontal levels. The fact that it goes slightly below the targeted level may also indicate the likelihood of the projected scenario as in those conditions we are usually seeing oversold.
It looks like Bill Clinton is going to speak at Ripple's Swell conference exactly on the day Ripple's impulse wave 5 ends which is on 1 and 2 October which may cause another swing to the upside.
How likely is that Ripple is going to 0.28?
Many Elliott Wave practitioners have been labeling differently the structures as to fit their bias toward their opinion that the market has bottomed out and we are in the accumulation stage. For those who doubt the possibility of Ripple going to 0.28$, I advise you to check out how Litecoin's pattern structure had developed similarly and how it has broken its key support levels taking the price significantly lower which would correlate with the 0.28$ level in the case of Ripple.
As you can see from the above chart a similar scenario happened: the key support was broken after the second attempt to break the resistance failed. In the midst of this bear market, the price of Litecoin will continue to go even further down.
So what is the likelihood of Ripple halving in evaluation? Well, more likely than not.
