Data analysis is very useful to help predict market movements. The more data the better. Trend analysis and fundamental analysis are a great start but social analysis is quickly becoming a useful tool as well. Most of social trend data is collected from twitter.
A research paper published in December called “Market Sentiment Helps Explain the Price of Bitcoin” examines this trend in more detail. Its author concludes:
"By combining the concept of Metcalfe’s law the variation of the BTC price can be accurately explained by using a market sentiment volume about BTC that is positively scored on social networks. The assumption is that the price of BTC is predominantly a result of the demand-supply balance of buyers and sellers, which is greatly influenced by market sentiment. It is likely that market sentiment is also highly affected by the price itself, forming a circular and bidirectional reflexivity."
This News Bitcoin article outlines this data nicely:
Source 35 min ago | Kai Sedgwick
It’s Better to Be Hated Than Ignored
According to the Watson’s Reports bot, bitcoin has the highest amount of negative hourly sentiment (11.5%). That’s to be expected given bitcoin’s dominance; haters gonna hate after all. A look at the runners-up in the positive and negative categories reveals some interesting entrants. The most positively mentioned coins are sia (20.6%), zclassic (19.5%), and digibyte (18.7%). Ubiq and stellar complete the top five.
In terms of negativity, after bitcoin it’s ethereum (6.1%), litecoin (5.3%), bitcoin cash (4.9%), and tenx (4.6%). Because the bot updates its analysis each hour, these trends are quite dynamic, with many cryptocurrencies, save for bitcoin, regularly trading places. Whether social analysis is an arbiter of market trends is a matter for investors to agonize over.
Images courtesy of Shutterstock, and Watson’s Reports.