DISCLAIMER: DUE TO THE FACT THAT DANIEL LARIMER TRIED TO CENSOR ME A COUPLE TIMES ALREADY, MY REPUTATION IS SO LOW THAT I CANNOT EVEN UPLOAD PHOTOS, SO MY ARTICLE WILL BE A BIT LESS USER FRIENDLY THAN I WOULD LIKE IT TO BE. SORRY FOR THAT.
First of all, I want to make clear that in no way I am asking or forcing you to follow my tips, and I just write this as some insight for further study, in case you are interested.
I was thinking about writing about this topic last month, on the giveaway done on June 9th, but I did not have enough time for it.
Yesterday, on July 9th, was Byteball's latest airdrop.
For those of you who are not familiar with this term, it means that they gave free GBYTEs (their cryptocurrency) to bitcoin and GBYTE holders who claimed ownership of their coins.
One GBYTE, at the moment of the distribution, was valued at around 0.35BTC, which in USD was about 875$ (BTC price was around 2500$).
For each Bitcoin you successfully claimed ownership of, you must have been rewarded with 62.5 MB.
If we take into account that 62.5 MB is 6.25% of a GBYTE and 1 GBYTE is 35% of a Bitcoin, you would have been rewarded with around 2.19% of your total bitcoin holdings.
For each GBYTE you owned, you must have been rewarded with 0.2 GBYTE.
This is 20% of your GBYTE holdings.
At the same time, if we take a close look at the price graph on Bittrex (you can check it in the following link, since I'm not allowed to upload images: https://bittrex.com/Market/Index?MarketName=BTC-GBYTE), we can see that price dropped from 0.35 BTC to 0.232 BTC yesterday.
This is due to the fact that when people receive free money, the immediately want to cash it out into bitcoin, causing a huge price drop (as I expected with Stellar Lumens, when I wrote about shorting it a few days ago).
If we analyze the amount given to Bitcoin and GBYTE holders during the giveaway, and the price volatility caused by it, we can observe that the price drop from 0.35 BTC to 0.232 BTC is -33.71%, which compared to the reward for being a bagholder gives us a better investment opportunity.
AND WHAT'S THIS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY?
The previous giveaway, on June 9th, showed a price drop from 0.34 BTC to 0.2121 BTC, which is -37.62%.
After the price drop, and up until the last giveaway on July 9th, the price went right back to 0.35 BTC, right before dropping once again when people received the free coins.
The opportunity is towards the next giveaway, on August 7th (you can check all the necessary information here: https://byteball.org).
Having a look at previous behavior of Byteball, we can SPECULATE, that price might easily reach once again at least 0.35 BTC (similar to what it did right before last two giveaways), so if we buy right now, at around 0.277 BTC, the increase in price would be around 26.35%.
Instead of claiming our reward on August 7th, we would sell our GBYTEs on August 6th, when the price would be close to the maximum before the fall the next day.
Not only would we make 26.35% on our investment, which is higher than the 20% given to GBYTE holders, but we would also make this money in terms of bitcoin.
Taking into account the drop that GBYTE will most probably suffer after the airdrop (giveaway), if we claimed the reward and tried to convert it to bitcoin, we could probably end up losing money because of the volatility.
So in my opinion, and judging by the past behavior of this cryptocurrency in similar situations, the best advice would be to try and buy GBYTE now, and sell on August 6th, the night before the giveaway.
I would have loved to write this article a few hours ago, but sadly it was not possible.
Those who already bought at the dip might have even gotten a better price, but I believe the opportunity is still very good towards the next airdrop.