You bring up some good points. The scale of this giveaway is far larger (6x larger) than their last giveaway, though, and it will increase the number of lumens on the market by 200%. That's a huge dilution. Mathematically, we'd need another $1 billion to flow into lumens for the duration of the giveaway in order for the price to stay the same. That's not out of the realm of possibility, but it seems prudent to just lighten your exposure to lumens. Why take the risk when you can hold bitcoin instead and then claim even more lumens?