Portfolio: -18% (For various reasons I won’t be directly disclosing the value of my portfolio)
"Now hold still. Don't move. Don't move at all. Don't no one get out the door, neither. Otherwise we'll all go."
Never have the words of Michael Caine been more prophetic to now. It feels like we're at, in the short term at least, a pivotal point in 2018 for Bitcoin. We're curently footling about at around $7500 after a minor break up for a day or so over the weekend, but it wasn’t convincing and sure enough down it came again. Not only this but I’ve noticed a turning of sentiment from those commentators I follow who aren’t given to hyperbole and who stay grounded. They haven’t turned full bear or anything, but just this morning there was a change from ‘we’ll bounce back’ to ‘it might take months or years’ and even ‘if it drops to $2.5k I don’t know if it will recover’. Whilst I don’t necessarily agree with the latter, and I think the market will recover in some form, it’s interesting to note the overall change in tone in the last 24 hours. We’ve dipped under $8k and there are a number of support levels coming up that obviously I hope we won’t cross, but at the same time there just doesn’t seem to be the appetite to get Bitcoin out of this hole. So there really is no telling how low it will drop. I’m still looking at this in the long term (2 years+), so normally this wouldn’t be troubling me, but when very grounded people start talking about whether Bitcoin will recover it’s natural to worry a little. This could of course just be the crash the market has been begging for where we see a year-long bear market that sifts out all the crap and leaves us with a core of decent projects.
Populous also announced last night that their beta has been delayed by a month. In normal circumstances this would have led to a huge drop in the price of PPT, but thankfully the news didn’t cause even the slightest ripple and it only went down with the market. I sold about 75% of my PPT given that it will likely end the month much cheaper. I’m still hugely bullish long term, but there’s little point holding onto it for the time being. It’s at times like this that perspective is important. I know it’s not the time to sell, but if I can sell a few assets that are likely to fall in the coming days/weeks and make use of the proceeds in the real world, that’s one of the few ways I can get some joy out of this whole mess! So I cashed in my TNC, added it to my PPT sales and some BTC I had lying about and converted it all to GBP. I’ll probably send a bit to my bank to pay off an interest free loan, but I want to keep the bulk of it for the rebound. Having said that, I’m happy with my portfolio as it stands, so part of me is tempted to make use of what I’ve withdrawn in the real world. I’m not so fixated on the rules of when and when not to sell, and I’m happy to sacrifice crypto potential earnings for real world ones now and again.
So currently there’s nothing left to do but keep an eye on the charts and see when the bottom is in. Will it be $7.5k, $5, will it be £2k? In the parting words of Michael Caine from The Italian Job, "...erm....erm...".