Its always risky making calls when it comes to Crypto, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here for some very good reasons.
It's safe to say we've had a much needed correction in the Crypto markets. We went up really fast, really quickly and now the market is taking a breather. Add to this the scaling debate in Bitcoin and ICO's creating huge volatility in Ethereum price fluctuations, and it could to some look like a scary situation.
However, despite the posturing and game theory, and who will back down first mentality, at the end of the day, these guys are not going to risk the vast fortune they've accumulated by splitting Bitcoin. The market has shown its disdain for the infighting through the price, and egos and miners fees are not enough in my opinion to oppose the greatest weakness of human nature, and thats greed.
Given the ever increasing cost of setting up massive mining operations and the fees associated with it, I don't think that business model can sustain a sub $1000 Bitcoin. I've heard people talking about the price dropping to $600 in the next few weeks according to miners, and I think thats absolute bullshit, they can't afford to have the price dip that low. In the end, it might not be the most altruistic of ideologies that makes the community come together, but ironically the financial implications if they don't.
In any event, even in the worst case scenario, we have a split. So what? Ethereum hard forked, look where it is now, and people ended up with the same amount of Ethereum Classic, which is also doing well. Sure, immediately afterwards there will be a drop, but not for long, and then at least both sides will have what they wanted and go on their merry ways, plus you and I will have a whole other Bitcoin in our wallets that we can decide what to do with. It would be great if this didn't happen, but the point is, it's not the end of the world if it does.
Another reason I think we've seen the bottom as August 1st approaches, is that no one is really certain what will happen if the chain splits on August 1st and the first few days following. So the panic selling would happen in anticipation of this event, as in now and the last few weeks, rather than the closer we move to that date. Bulls on the other hand will be looking to capitalize on the fear and uncertainty, and buy the dip, leading up to the event, as they don't know either what buying Bitcoin on, or just after that day will look like. So in my opinion, the hands have been played, for the most part. The only place to go from here is up, once we have Segwit.
The Crypto space is still in its infancy, and yet look at the disruption its already created. Look at the sheer momentum behind these cryptos, the passion involved. Have you ever been or seen anyone get so animated about the dollar's daily moves? Crypto is a movement, its not just about money. It was born out of necessity, as our mistrust in the legacy institutions slowly galvanizes our community.
Its a living, breathing, monster thats been let loose. Whatever has been thrown at it, has only made it stronger. It will continue to grow, and continue to face challenges. Perhaps what it needs from us as a community, is our support. Less fear, more certainty, more faith in what it is that we all signed up for.
After all, its a beautiful thing.
Peace & Love.
