Thanks for the post. I'll digest your ideas and hope to see more from you in the future.
A few of things to consider:
Not all coins in a tier are in same type. So even if they have around the same circulation that doesn't necessarily mean the bottom priced tier 1 coin would get to the top priced coin.
Given #1 above, coins prices are more a matter of their current market cap and what you think their market cap will be in the future.
Note that its likely that a coins circulation changes over time. So you have to have a way to think about how much inflation a coin has over the time period you are looking at.
I created a post here on assessing coin prices in the future:
RE: How to Value an ICO and Your Investment - Read How!