It seems like the Big 3 have settled after a period of steep decline in 2 and moderate decline in 1.
ETH
I said yesterday that if we broke 180, we should settle into around 185 overnight. I still see a Fri/Sat target of 220 as very likely and reasonable as that was the last step down support. Level before the floor opened up on our way down to 130. While that 25$ spread seems enticing, patience is key today as I still think retracement toward 160 MIGHT occur which would open up opportunity for long positions between 155-160. Of we see ETH break 200 today, I think the market is signaling a pretty quick move up toward 225-240 which would test the last sticking point before the bottom fell out.
Thought for the day - watch ETH consolidate from the sidelines. ETH is still highly undervalued and buying in this range could do you well long-term but if you're looking to clip off pts here and there, today's market might not be for you.
BTC - after the meteoric rise to 3k, we saw a steady retracement toward 1750. Most who have been reporting over the last month of BTC pricing have called this move a "bloodbath" and have written off BTC as dead. Then there are some of us who understand that market pullbacks are:
- Expected
- Healthy
- Buying Opportunities
It's very easy if your playing with scared money to see a 20-30% retracement and bail on your investment. Those who stick in it and buy more are usually the ones who win out during market correction phases. The ones who benefitted most in 2008 were those who had cash they could deploy and bought up stock at firesale prices. This weekend, those of us who went into the market and bought got our coin at a deep fire sale price.
I can see BTC moving back toward 2500-2750 over the next week to two weeks as more good news comes out about the miners implementing SegWit which this author believes is going to be successful and all the drama wasn't necessary. Scaring investors who are long term out of an investment is how traders make their "coin" and that's what we saw happen.
Thoughts for the day - BTC is volatile generally. 1-200 dollars swings are not unusual and are expected. I still think BTC is cheap for a short term price and a longer term price so you can still buy into this market and see a bump. Similar to ETH, BTC has consolidated overnight and we can see 1 of 2 scenarios play out:
We move up through 2300, the last support level before the move downward to 1750 at which point I think 2550 is a good target for Friday; or
We lose our support at the overnight levels at which point we could see retracement back toward 1850 which would signal a heavy buying opportunity for those who still have capital on the sidelines.
I hope you enjoy my morning thoughts and find them useful. These obviously are my own views and opinions and should not be taken as investment advice. Your own analysis and diligence is encouraged.
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