XVG is expected to enter the top 10 cryptocurrencies by end of 2018. The 9th ranked crypto as of July 2nd, 2017 is Monero (also a like for like competitor) which has an MC of $5.3 B. Assuming the crypto market space doubles in the next six months, which in all conservative likeliness it should, XVG could be said to have an MC of about $12 billion (520,000 BTC approx.) which would render its price at 520,000/13,409,472,280 = 0.00003878 BTC or 3878 satoshis. This translates to about 12.92 times or 1292% of the current price at 300 satoshis. The breakup of the increase is detailed below.
Verge v/s Competitors - The Technology
Verge wallet that does no mixing, no ringsigs and no form of transaction obfuscation, but connects to I2P from 4 nodes that are all hosted from the developer and they hide your IP. They call it the "Blackhole" tech. This is in contrast to its competitors which do not perfectly hide user IP.
Company Analysis - Roadmap
Verge has the following roadmap for the near future (July):
i2P/TOR Android Wallets
Android Wallet for Anon transactions ONLY! (near completion)New Core Wallet Release
Add new features including coin control, RingCT, update libraries (openssl, boost, etc)RSK smart contracts
They are in testnet for bitcoin now. Date revolves around this timeline.Wallet UI overhaul
Merchandise Online Store
Verge Merchandise shop will have tshirts/apparel that can be purchased with XVG and BTC.
As one can see, that is a lot of development lined up for one month. The RSK token part is interesting, if implemented, Verge will be the first crypto to offer anonymous smart contracts. For those who are new to crypto, smart contracts is one of Ethereum's USPs and we all know how much the crypto has grown over the last three months.
To further substantiate the technological development, one could analyse the relative github activities.
Github Activities
Verge - Github Commits: 529, Collaborators: 12
Dash - Github Commits: 13,337, Collaborators: 370
Monero - Github Commits: 4,111, Collaborators: 104
ZCash - Github Commits: 10,640, Collaborators: 356
For a new project, 529 commits is a very healthy number backed by 12 developers. This number is expected to grow and catch up with those of its competitors. Activities in the last 3 months have been greater for Verge vis-a-vis its competitors.
With such monthly developments, one would not be wrong to assume an average of 50% rise in price per month leading up to December. So, for six months, expected rise powered by development = 1.5^6 = 11.39, i.e., 1139%.
Collaborators
Exchanges
Verge is currently listed on 8 exchanges. It is yet to be listed on Poloniex, Kracken, Bitfinex, Coinbase, OKCash - and some major exchanges. Also, there is no Chinese presence yet. Addittion to each exchange on an average adds 20% to the existing price of a coin (Ardor rose from 85k satoshis to 110k satoshis during the btc38 addition). So if Verge is added to at least 3 exchanges, I see a 1.2^3 = 1.73 = 173% increase in price contributed by exchanges.
Famous Institutions
In Aug, JP Morgan announced a collaboration with ZCash. The price of ZCash shot up by 100% in 15 minutes before stabilizing at about 50% higher than the pre-news levels. The buildup to the Antshares-Microsoft conference pushed the former's price up by almost 5x. Given the comparison with its competitors above, I see at least one large corporate use Verge technology in the next six months. Safe to say, about 60%-70% increase in price is expected from such news.
So, price increase due to fundamentals ~ 11.39 (Development) * 1.73 (Exchanges) * 1.65 (Institutional Collaboration) ~ 32.51 or 3251%
Technical Analysis
Verge was priced at 5 satoshis till May 8th, 2017. It exploded to 224 satoshis on June 5th, 2017 before retracing to the current value of 118 satoshis. It remains relatively stable against the BTC, when most other alts are losing value and the BTC dominance rising during the crypto meltdown.
The weekly chart shows the formation of a potential cup and handle (C&H). The cup seems to be bottoming out and the handle expected to complete around September 6th to 15th. Breakout from this stage would resemle Wave 3 of the Elliott Wave, which is the strongest of the 5 waves. The breakout from the previous C&H happened from 45 satoshis to 203 satoshis (4.73 times). Applying Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 3 should be 2.618 times (Extended Fibonacci Golden Ratio) that of Wave 1, which is 11.82 times the breakout base of 203 satoshis, i.e., 2399 satoshis. Considering the duration of the present C&H of 12 weeks (June 1st Week to September 1st Week), the next C&H would complete during mid December. The breakout from there would correspond to Wave 5 of Elliott, which would be 1.618 times (Fibonacci Golden Ratio) of the breakout base of 2197 satoshis, i.e. 3886 satoshis.