Hello guys,
The big Chinese FUD period is over. If I do a quick recap at this, I think it is pretty ugly how bigger players were taking advantage over the new fishes. I think many new people to crypto where holding their coins when they heard first about the Chinese ban on ICO's and kept holding. When the rumours came about shutting down the exchanges, I think they were still holding. But when these two things became true, I think many people were afraid the third time when the rumours about banning bitcoin mining hit the crypto world.
I'm pretty sure these newcomers thought to be smart to sell this time their coins (and hoping for another big dip so they could back buy more). But you will always see, at that moment you are selling the dip and after that everything starts to go up. And in the days after that, you keep believing that it will come down again until you realize it won't. At the moment you hear the mining rumours were false, you decide to buy back in. But at that moment, everything went already up a lot and you would have made a big loss.
Learn from it and take advantage the next time
If you were one of them, I think it is a very good lesson about this market because - especially in this market - you have to make decisions on your own. Don't let the emotions hit you too much because you will always lose money at that moment and don’t think you can beat the market, especially not if you are new to this.So, what's next? Everything is rising nicely again and a lot of positive news dominated the crypto markets last week (except that korea ICO ban FUD). That Korea wasn’t enough so it just caused a quick drop and a rise. Hopefully, new people didn’t also fall for this. But actually this was nothing. If you are a few months on board, you know there are periods with a lot of good news and periods with a lot of bad news.
So that Korea FUD was a try but the week was too positive so it hadn’t much influence. But now you have to watch out, because there will come another period of FUD and I think this is closer then we might think. I will share my idea about it and keep you guys save the next time and hopefully, you can make some nice profits during that period.
Prepare yourself for a new FUD period
“Around 18 november we can expect block 494784 from Bitcoin, which is when Segwit2x should hard fork to 2MB blocks. “What is the first question you have when you read that?
Probably something like: will there be another hard fork to another bitcoin? Exactly that will become (part of) the FUD, because we don’t know what will happen. So this is a perfect moment for big players to take profits before that and start FUDding around end october when they sold their investments.
Thinking like a whale
So what will be a great time to take the profits and start FUDding? Like it seems, october become a good month. It’s in the big players benefit to make it a big month, so they are gonna make some coins ‘fly’. On top of that, we can expect some great news coming from China (after their elections) and maybe even from the United States. So some coins are going to perform very well this month. I think NEO and ADEX long and BTS and RIPPLE short. Read my article about my october short term strategy here: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@nvdm/go-with-the-flow-in-crypto-october-2018End october / bitcoin $6000 is the moment
There are 2 possible moments when they start selling. About 1 thing i’m pretty sure: they will do that on the end of october. If october becomes great, a lot of small crypto traders are positive and become naive so that makes end october the perfect moment. Also, according to some realistic TA bitcoin will reach $6000 end october. This is also a psychical threshold, which makes this moment perfect for taking profits. This could be 25th october or maybe a little earlier if bitcoin reach his $6000 before the 25th.Please, take profits at this moment. Don’t be naive that bitcoin keeps rising. Segwit2x is real and because nobody knows what will happen, the chance is very small that bitcoin keeps climbing towards $7000 and $8000 with this uncertainty.
And right after you took profits, walk away from the computer and come back when segwit2x happens. Because it is most likely it will rise a little more and with the positive vibe you will have in october your emotions are strong, tempting you to buy back when bitcoin rise again. But don’t do that, it’s too risky.
Technical analyse
Just some basic stuff with a nice paint editing – I like that simplicity to do simple edits ghehe. So this supports my view I explained above.
One more thing to add to this analyses is that we can't know what will happen on 18th november. Maybe it will drop more or it starts rising. I can't know that, nobody can't. The best thing we could know is the period before 18th, based on the history of the market and the playstyle from big players and some logical thinking.
Hopefully, you can make some great returns in october and cash it all out at the right time. If you succeed, then you can earn even more at the dip around 18th november because after all this shit is over, we will see bitcoin rising again and I think we could see $10.000 BTC in 2018 if everything goes well.