"To be fair, if you made literally any position in any coin the past couple months, you would have made money”
(this was the comment I wrote not too long ago which was the inspiration for this post)
Right, so it’s the end of 2017. If you’ve invested in the crypto market anytime in 2017, there’s a very high likelihood that you’ve made some money.
With that being said, you should take a step make and realize that it’s probably not skill on your end which led to financial success in the crypto markets.
I think a good example of this is to consider what returns you would have experienced if you threw money into a reputable, good, solid project vs. if you were to indiscriminately throw money into an aptly named “shit” coin.
My favorite blockchain project is Ethereum! Serving as a protocol to build a host of decentralized applications, with faster and cheaper transaction speeds that Bitcoin, and the strongest development community out of any crypto project, I think it’s poised to have a terrific run in 2018. Sounds good right? Given the community, media coverage, the fundaments… hell…. this coin should defintely be SIGNIFICANTLY out performing all the “weaker” projects in the crypto space.
So let’s go ahead and look at Dogecoin - a coin that is by all means a joke of a project.
In 2017, Dogecoin increased from $.0002 to $0.01 - a 49 fold increase
(Which by way, accounts for over a billion dollar market cap. Come on people!)
In 2017, Ethereum increased from $10 to $740 - a 73 fold increase
This illustrates that no matter the project you picked, whether it was revolutionary or a meme project, you would have still made a killing.
Now, I’m not trying to say anyone sucks at what they are doing. However, I do think it’s important to get some perspective on how gains have materialized across the board in the crypto space. It’s also crucial for newcomers to know that the “gold rush” of 2017 is unlikely to happen in the same magnitude in 2018. Lightening doesn't strike twice
I’m also writing this because I’ve run into some unsavory, arrogant types who think they are some prodigal god-child investor because of their crypto gains. That being said... people’s success in the crypto markets have been a product of luck, a high propensity for risk, futurist attitude, and a bit of greed.
Also! I don't want to discount the merit of technical analysis (TA), volume based trading, sentiment analysis, arbitrage, or bot trading. These are all levers an investor can use to gain reliable edge in the crypto space. But until we realize some stark differences in the returns of "good projects" vs "shit projects", it can be hard to tell whether it was overall market movement or your skill that led to your gains.
As we enter 2018, I hope everyone does more due diligence on the projects they pursue. We should also be cognizant to a potential consolidation of projects in 2018 where “shit” coins collapse and where real project with solid fundaments cannibalize their value as the crypto space grows to new heights.
So in the wise words of one of the great poets of our century... "sit down and be humble".
Merry Christmas Everyone!