4 days ago I made a forecast for the further dynamics of bitcoin in post Technical and news analysis on bitcoin and correlation with the market of altсoins - when to buy?, in which I predicted a further drop in bitcoin and the fulfillment of the target $ 8000:
Then I wait for him in the final point of correction between 8 and 9k. I'm sure it will be a great purchase...
, today this goal was fulfilled, and I made 2 purchases of three equal parts on 8555 and 8055, but the third one, which was at a price of 9055, was left in reserve. Something went wrong, and now we will consider that. I assumed movement on the arrows from the previous post:
But as we can see, bitcoin was much weaker than I thought, and it could not even rise to the upper limit of the falling channel (so my bid for sale at $ 13400 is not executed so far). Worse yet, the fall was too fast - I was expecting $ 8000 only in the Chinese New Year (February 16). Therefore, I have slightly adjusted the goals - it's clear that catching a falling knife is always a big risk, but I want to reduce it a little, especially since I keep a lot of altcoins long-term (HODL) and I do not have many free USD(T) limits on speculative purchases now. So I redrew the technical picture like this:
I'm going to sell (what bought today) in a green ellipse in the vicinity of 10k, after which, increasing the remainder of the fiat in reserve, wait for possible panic and a steep fall into the area of a very strong previous top of $ 5000. Since the movement is supposed to be very hysterical, I'll catch the tail of the candle in red ellipse, $ 5000-6500.
P.S.
The worst thing in trading is to be on a grand sale without money)))) So I hold my fiat ... for such a case.
Do not forget that you are fully responsible for all your actions on the market. This post is not a recommendation to action, but an exchange of views, criticism is welcome!