Correction Incoming
Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor, so don't take my opinion too seriously. Do your own research, your losses are your own.
This post serves mainly as a purpose to write down my thoughts and give me some bragging rights when I call the prices correctly or serve as a great opportunity to laugh about how wrong I was If I don't call anything correctly!
Another opportunity to buy some cryptocurrency may appear sooner than you think.
The incredible rate of growth we have seen in the last few months has been on halt for about two weeks.
We've experienced the first dip on the 15th of June, which was partially due to a major outage of Coinbase.
My opinion is that the market got flooded last months with a lot of people who are new to cryptocurrency, this vastly increases demand which in turn increases the price. However, these new people often don't have enough knowledge about a) investing and b) cryptocurrency, which makes them easy prey during a downturn because their valuation was mainly based on growth opportunities.
BTC: Price as I write this: $2476
My predictions are that BTC will reach the $2000 mark before the 1st of August in the best case scenario. In the worst case scenario, with a lot of uncertainty about the results of UASF and a lot of people freaking out about it I can even see it drop to the $1500 mark.
ETH: Price as I write this $256
On one hand, Ethereum will profit from the uncertainty of Bitcoin which increases the position as a safe haven, but on the other hand we have the EOS ICO coming up, which may prove to be a fierce disruptor. If this disruption is expected by the market, this will decrease the value of Ethereum. Overall, I'd say that the current price of Ethereum is still too high. Much of the price is based on growth opportunities while intrinsic current value lags behind in my opinion. While it definitely has already taken a punch, I think Ethereum will decrease in value even more and end up around $200 before the 1st of August.
STEEM: Price as I write this $1.80
While Steem is showing an impressive growth in users and posts, I'm a bit skeptic about how many of these users are truly sticking around and what the quality of the posts is. In order to grow, simple 9gag/facebook reposts aren't going to cut it. The price increase of STEEM has a high correlation with other cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH which have skyrocketed. To me this isn't an indicator that STEEM hasn't been the only contributor to the surge it has seen. My prediction is that STEEM will fall together with BTC and ETH and end up between $1.20 and $1 before the first of August.
Other thoughts:
With the EOS ICO beginning today and ending the 1st of July, it may be worthwhile to buy the dip in Ethereum prices.
Buying Ethereum at the right price may prove to be a nice multiplier to your long-term performance of EOS.
I am optimistic about the long-term performance of cryptocurrencies, I think that before the end of this year the price of BTC and ETH will already have reached half of what they have lost in the incoming correction.
For STEEM I predict a price of $4 before the end of this year. I think there is a steady growth, but it will take some time to ramp up the perception of the individual value of STEEM and decouple it from the market shocks.
What will I be doing?
I will be buying some STEEM if the price drops below $1.30, this will probably be paired with a BTC drop so I will buying some BTC at that time in order to truly buy STEEM for $1.30. I will most likely do so with a few limit orders to get a spread and decrease my overall buying price while also decrease my chances of missing the opportunity.
If the ETH price decreases a bit more in the next few days, I'll put a small amount of money in EOS. This is a purely speculative investment.
Let me know what your predictions​ are in the comments below!
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