I ran into an issue this week I hadn't planned for — what happens when Bitcoin does well?
For the last few weeks, I've been using the CCI30, a crypto market index, to rate my alt-coin picks against. What I realized this week is that it includes Bitcoin as one of the coins it tracks. This imbalances things because $BTC and the Alts, as we saw this week, don't always go hand-in-hand BUT that's not always a bad thing.
So in the spirit of transparency and fairness, I'm keeping that in. I'm also adding the T&C Altcoin index, which does not include $BTC. That way you can decide what you want to judge me against.
I'm kind of lukewarm on my analysis this week. If you sold when the market shifted to $BTC on Friday, you likely did well. Seven of nine picks performed better than the market when using the CCI30, and eight of nine when pitted against the T&C.
If you held, well that's a different story based on the weekly close. I, personally, didn't do a lot of trading this week and now I'm wondering if I should've (I have bags of $LEND, $OCN, $ICX and $ADA right now). At close only three of nine performed better than the market on the CCI30, though six of nine outperformed on the T&C.
Clearly, $OCN, $WAVES and $ONT were the bells of the ball and its at least gratifying to see the #1 ($OCN) shine this week. $ICX was the true dud, while $LUX and $POE both ended up down for the week.
Analysis Roadmap
As I mentioned on Twitter, and at least partially here, I'm moving forward with tweaks to my methodology. I welcomed $CarpeNoctom, $cryptomocho and $Panama_TJ to the analysis, replacing some inactive traders/influencers and I'm researching some others to push to 50 by the end of the month.
I've also started developing with Watson in hopes of automating and expanding my analysis. This is a way's off but will open up a lot of doors, including allowing me to track individual trader/inluencer performance to insure I'm providing some of the best in the game. I'll keep ya posted as I build that out.
I'll be back with the top coins for the week tomorrow evening. Here's the market performance data on the coins for the week:
| Coin | Rank | Week Start | High | Close | Close Change | High Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POE | 7 | $0.060 | $0.063 | $0.056 | -6.00% | 5.00% |
| ONT | 7 | $7.040 | $11.180 | $9.110 | 29.00% | 59.00% |
| LUX | 7 | $10.030 | $11.650 | $9.430 | -6.00% | 16.00% |
| WAN | 5 | $8.720 | $9.920 | $8.690 | 0.00% | 14.00% |
| WTC | 5 | $16.340 | $18.570 | $16.760 | 3.00% | 14.00% |
| WAVES | 4 | $6.450 | $8.550 | $7.360 | 14.00% | 33.00% |
| ICX | 3 | $4.830 | $4.870 | $4.390 | -9.00% | 1.00% |
| TRX | 1 | $0.082 | $0.094 | $0.086 | 5.00% | 15.00% |
| OCN | 1 | $0.023 | $0.034 | $0.031 | 32.00% | 46.00% |
| CCI30 | --- | $10,254.000 | $10,930.000 | $10,833.000 | 6.00% | 7.00% |
| T&C | --- | $9,303.000 | $9,450.000 | $9,169.000 | -1.00% | 2.00% |
The Influencers
Who am I?
I'm an investigative data journalist during the day, and I've been looking for a way to cut through the noise and get a true sense of what some of the biggest crypto influencers are pushing toward and pulling away from.
Using a pseudonym here because I can't post about this shit on my verified accounts. I've become mildly obsessed with crypto and its constant stream of data and needed an outlet. So here I am.
What is this?
Each week, I scrape the Twitter accounts of some of the crypto world's favorite influencers, traders and TA folk. I run a basic sentiment analysis to see which coins they are mentioning positively, in a neutral way and which they are mentioning in a negative light.
I calculate "power" simply by subtracting negative mentions from positive ones to give an aggregate score. The higher the score, the better, the lower the worse. For the daily rankings, I also create aggregate scores for the majors and the Alt markets. The Alts get a 10 point deduction any time the majors go below zero, since overall the Alt-market has a tough time staying above water when BTC is in a spiral.
This isn't financial advice, just my own way of trying to make sense of what's out there. And as with most things, the more data I collect, hopefully, the more interesting it'll be. This is a work in progress. Please leave suggestions on how to make it better. I imagine if I keep up with it, I'll be able to expand a bunch of the analysis, but I wanted to start somewhere.