I was thinking about writing this yesterday, but Saturday is my down day, and now I might just not be able to type quickly enough to get this out before these predictions happen. I have four:
- Bitcoin's market share falls below 50%
- Ripple moves past Ethereum in second place
- STEEM returns to top 10
- (the wild one) DASH goes No 1
Bitcoin
Bitcoin's market share has been falling steadily, so this is not a hugely spectulative prediction, and perhaps it won't have great ramifications. However, during this last week I believe, from my limited data set, that having both BTC climbing and Altcoins surging is a novelty. Why is this happening? Are the Fiat Whales now taking an overt interest?
With the involvement of serious money, there will be a the desire for a larger spread in the markets: big players will want to juggle between a number of currencies without each of their bets tipping the balance. Which are to be the the other currencies up there with BTC?
Ripple
Aside from the issues of huge unfulfilled promise, Ethereum has a bad name. I don't mean a bad reputation, I mean the actual name. It's far too geeky. Ether is a drug, and a seedy one at that; and it's insubstantial. Would you like the prospect of your investment blowing away on a zethyr? Going to sleep, like a patient etherized on a table?
Ripple however has a great name. It's not a perfect name, it's not a strong woody name (think Monty Python), but it's way better than Ether. I know Tony Vays has called Ripple (and quite a lot of others as well!) a scam, but so what? Serious money likes Ripple. I don't think it will ever be The Banks' main blockchain, they will build their own, but they might be about to use Ripple as their proof on concept.
Something that alerted me to this name thing with Ripple is that the current incarnation is the second: the name was purchased from a very interesting sounding web of trust project. Did they have no imagination, to come up with a name of their own? Not a chance, the name is important.
STEEM
There are many positive signs for STEEM (not least the gains of the last few days). It's being spoken about in high profile places; the technology; the similar recent success of BTS. STEEM at $1 in the near future has to be a real possibility and, as with BTC going below 50%, not really hugely spectulative, but why not say it?
"Touch wood..."
But STEEM as a top four? I can't see this, and here are three reasons:
- STEEM is does too many things. It's beautiful, but it's complicated.
- Again, the name. It's much much better than ETHER, but having made the argument that ETHER is too insubstantial, then perhaps so is STEEM. This will not be fatal, because there are positive connatations as well: steam cooked food is so healthy; who doesn't love steam trains; and so on.
- We haven't got Amanda.
DASH
And apart from Amanda, and there is no need to comment again on her influence here, there is the name. Dash is the killer name: it is cash, and we know what that is, something concrete and real; it is fast; it is simple; and it is a solidly woody word.
Will it go No 1? The main hinderance that I can see is the supply, so that 1 DASH would have to have a very high value. Or Amanda might jump ship to STEEM. , get on it.
Other points
- NEM was the name of Brian Epstein's management company, so the name has astronomic good-karma;
- Dogecoin has a bad name - it's dodgy - but a huge supply and a sense of humour;
- When everything is pumping, pay attention to which coins are dumping;
- GOLOS is very cheap: if, I mean when, STEEM goes top 10, GOLOS could feel some benefit.
This post is protected by the Poetic License, 0.99 (beta). Never invest what you can't afford to lose, and always eat your greens. And read poetry. Thank you.