There is a noticeable correlation between Bitcoin’s latest jump and Bitmex Futures, believes Luke Martin.
The renowned cryptocurrency analyst said Thursday that Bitcoin price moved north right after Bitmex launched its September futures, XBTU19. Martin noted that the bitcoin market underwent a jump in volume and volatility after the XBTU19 went live. He also identified two similar events in the past in which the beginning of new futures contracts coincided with increased volatility and volume in the Bitcoin market.
Bitmex Futures and Bitcoin Price | Source: Luke Martin
Martin referred to a Bitmex June Futures contract (XBTM19) which went live on December 18, 2018. The bitcoin price rallied up to 34 percent after the futures trading began. In the same month, on 27, other Bitmex futures (XBZ18) expired. Soon after the expiry, the bitcoin price jumped 8 percent.
Marting considered those two events as pieces of evidence for a third-possible rally. On Wednesday, the crypto-analyst wrote that while he wasn’t sure about a rally, it was “reasonable to expect a higher chance of volatility and volume.”
Bitmex September 2019 Futures Launch
Bitmex XBTU19 started trading Friday. A day later, bitcoin price jumped above $4,000
“BTC move started right after new Bitmex quarterlies started trading,” Martin tweeted. “Identical pattern to the previous two events highlighted in the thread. Mark this on your calendars going forward as it’s clearly an event the market is paying attention to. Beautiful.”
BTCVIX Criticism
BTCVIX, a popular crypto Twitterati, criticized Martin’s analysis for using just two data points: June Futures expiry and December Futures open. The critic also noted that Bitmex bitcoin futures lacked substantial volume to have such a significant impact on bitcoin spot markets. At just 25-30 orders, there was no way bitmex futures traders could have fueled the bitcoin demand across exchanges. 
Overall, the analysis attempted to present what could be one of the many million theories to predict bitcoin price action. In the end, the cryptocurrency remains an asset with one-too-many surprises under its sleeves.