Jason Goepfert of sentiment trader says history suggests further declines are likely. The Wall Street Journal highlighted his research this morning...
Only once in the last 100 years has the Dow fallen nine out of 10 trading sessions and suffered a loss smaller than the current stretch, according to data from Jason Goepfert, publisher of the SentimenTrader newsletter. It was in 1941, just months before the U.S. was dragged into the Second World War...
Still, even the least damaging losing streaks tend not to bode well for the market in the short term, at least historically. Mr. Goepfert finds that this is the 17th stretch where the Dow has suffered less than a 5% decline while also sinking nine days out of 10. The Dow has averaged a 0.7% decline in the week after such instances and 0.4% a month later. Six months later, on average, the Dow had fallen 2.8%.
Look at this chart of the dollar, if it breaks crypto, metals, etc will go up. Watch the dollar and watch the 10 year bond....goes above 2.5% then the market has shifted.
