There are tons and tons of people out there with different expectations with regards to the price of bitcoin by the end of 2018. While some people (pessimists) believe that the price will plummet below a thousand $$, the majority of predictions so far are generally bullish. We have price predictions that range from tens of thousands through hundreds of thousands to a million $$.
Well, price prediction may seem to be guesswork but it's not supposed to be that way. There have to be some considerations that determine whether future prices will rise or fall. And it seems to me a good number of people don't get it right. Or better still, they haven't learned any lesson from the past movements in the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
First, the price of bitcoin depends on the forces of demand and supply. An increase in demand drives the price up, and a decrease in demand obviously pushes the price downward.
But what is more important is to understand the elements that trigger a surge in demand and what it takes for the demand of bitcoin to be maintained or even increase further. In this regard, there're two important factors.
-General awareness.
-Technical readiness
By general awareness, I don't mean people rushing to buy bitcoin because of media hype. We all know what this phenomenon is called: FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out ). I'm talking of a situation where people get involved in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because they've educated themselves on the basics of how cryptocurrencies work. Plus, having a clear understanding of the major advantages that they have over traditional currencies.
Technical readiness on its part refers to a situation where the bitcoin network can handle all its users without causing a spike in fees and at the same time maintaining a reasonable level of transaction speed.
Anything short of the above will only lead us back to the same drama we witnessed last December: an unhealthy move for cryptocurrencies because anti bitcoiners will take advantage to rubbish the industry and misinform the public.
Again, there's something to note about bitcoin price swings: If there's an extreme bull run (without public awareness and technical readiness), a severe bear market most likely follows.
Now, with this basic knowledge, what do you think of bitcoin's price by the end of 2018?. Is it realistic that bitcoin goes up to 100,000+? I doubt! And I pray it shouldn't happen because even if it does, it won't be sustainable. The time frame from now to December is too short for us to expect the price of bitcoin to reach or surpass hundreds of thousands of dollars.