Since signing up to Steemit, inevitably I have been exposed to lots of crypto currency reading. Most of it ranging from enthusiastic to outright manic. I found it so refreshing to read this well thought out post by Preston Byrne, a lawyer in the crypto space, who coherently argues for the opposite case, it can soon all come tumbling down...
https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/09/01/the-bear-case-for-crypto/
Myself, I am trying to wrap my head around the whole thing...
I believe that the technology definitely is here to stay, but which particular coins will prevail remains to be seen.
As with the whole internet bubble, you have as many tribes as there were companies/coins , all swearing that their favorite would rule the world! Afterwards, it became evident that a huge portion of internet "greats" simply disappeared and those that were considered the early winners, have become irrelevant a mere decade and a half later.
At least with the internet bubble, critical thinking about these companies was easier because you could look at the business model from the point of view of the average user and see if it made sense.
Cryptocurrency is more opaque to me, unless you are pretty deep into it, it is difficult to get a feel for it and what it could mean. Like having a creditcard in 1950's I guess...
The technology, the use cases, the gap between the promised Walhalla of crypto payments and the stark realities of a few quick back -of-the-envelope calculations of what it would actually take to make it work at scale,... it inspires little confidence.
Remember virtual reality that was supposed to rule the world by now? Great potential and so many potential use cases... What happened to that? Where's my holodeck? In many cases technology, although valid, doesn't take off because of timing rather than anything else...
Is the cryptocurrency technology useful? Undoubtedly yes.
Is it going to go mainstream? I think for daily use as an average person there are still too many hurdles.
It is going to get there someday but security issues, handing fees, acceptance etc. will stand in the way for most people.
Are the current prices warranted? Probably not for 95 % of them... lots of magical thinking going on it seems.
I am willing to believe the concept has value, and it is an exponential technology.
But the manipulations are outrageous and obvious.
Too many ICO's (maybe even Bitcoin variants) seem to be blufpoker , hoping to ensnare enough people and cash out before it all comes tumbling down.
In the midst of all these hundreds of coins undoubtedly there are few that may become the future giants, but there are no guarantees on anything, (see pet.com, Myspace, AOL, Yahoo, ... ).
In the mean time, can you make money off trading in crypto currency?
Most definitely it looks like for a while at least.
But, how long before the musical chairs stop though?
As valid as the concepts are, the whole ICO situation seems so manipulated it reminds of the penny stock shutdown in the 80's which was well described in the post !
If you are willing to take a punt, you can undoubtedly do well because the upside is so high, and if you are levelheaded enough to only risk what you can afford to lose, you can somewhat limit the downside.
But with this whole emotional situation, I see little critical thinking going on, I would love to find an equally balanced and well thought out post for a continued bull market. If you want to be able to think critically, you need credible sources on both sources of the argument.
I am still trying to make up my mind myself. I am convinced that the whole concept of cryptocurrency is valid. It is fun to see it grow, but the whole exuberance, genuine or maybe manufactured seems too much...
I remain skeptical, nothing can keep going up for ever, sooner or later the musical chairs stop.
Still considering jumping in for a little while and have some fun though......
I am a total newbie in this, no preference one way or the other, would love to hear from the veterans in this space what you think about the article!
What critical thinking tools would you use on this whole phenomenon? Or just stop thinking and jump in :) ?
EDIT... The publication of the post got screwy, first it showed only half the post after publication, so I rewrote it, then the missing words reappeared. The blockchain creaking.... ?