This week best of the blockchain world…
I’ve often made parallels between blockchain (Internet of Value) and Web (Internet of Information) in terms of the disruptive potential and societal benefits.
They hold (though I do think blockchain will be bigger).
Another parallel that is starting to emerge is one that, as a student of history, I’m aware we’ve seen many times over: the “speculative bubble.” Whether it’s the South Seas, Dutch Tulips, or simply Internet 1.0, investors who want a piece of the action jump on board and drive prices to insane heights.
What’s been going on in the blockchain market over the past few months seems to be reaching that point.
Accelerating this trend is the new form of crowdfunding known as ICOs — initial coin offerings, where pretty much anybody can raise money. It’s definitely a legal gray area, but whatever the facts are around the so-called Howey Test (to determine if something is a security), the fact is that it’s happening and pretty much anybody can join in.
In Internet 1.0, for example, most of the early stages were driven by venture capitalists. Today, it’s the venture capitalists who are following the crowds. (This fact actually makes me wonder if we’re going to see a disintermediation of the venture capital business. To their credit, I think Blockchain Capital’s “digital liquid fund” shows one potential new model.)
In my mind, this wave began in earnest last May with the original DAO raising $150 million via crowdfunding of Ether. While the story ended poorly, it highlighted an entirely new way of raising money.
That’s the really important part of the DAO.
Now, it seems like we have a new ICO every week (or multiple per week). Some of these have ideas with definite long-term potential. Some I don’t quite see. And others make no sense at all.
Even for those that do make sense, the valuations are starting to get crazy.
Case in point: Gnosis. The decentralized prediction market (we’re going to have a few, to be sure) that offered only 5 percent of its tokens, has a whitepaper, and has basically no working product, raised $12.5 million in 15 minutes, giving it a valuation of nearly $300 million.
Since then, speculation has taken it to over $1 billion.
I am sorry, but there’s no scenario where that makes any sense.
The effect is rippling (pun intended — you’ll see why) to many others as well. Ripple, which is an enterprise-focused blockchain for international settlements, has a token, XRP, that has exploded in recent weeks.
Don’t get me wrong — I believe Ripple actually has a great idea, is serving real customers, and has a working product. I also think it has good potential (disclosure: I own some). Still, the recent run-up seems excessive.
But, if I had to guess, I would say the recently-postponed ICO for Tezos, coming up in June, is going to be the equivalent of Netscape’s IPO. It will be the moment where pretty much everyone else turns to this industry and says, “Oh wow, what the hell is going on over there?”
Why do I think that? A few reasons:
read them :
https://venturebeat.com/2017/05/21/4-reasons-why-tezos-could-be-the-netscape-of-the-blockchain/