Good afternoon my friends. After the three day US weekend lets first comment today on the metals weakness.
I encourage everyone to go to KWN.com (King world News) and read the brilliant piece by Dr. Stephen Leeb about the trade war escalation with China, holder of 30,000 tonnes of gold. They may have more. We are at war with them. You'll be hearing a lot more soon about it. They despise us and our dollar. We will not win a trade war with them, that simple.
I have read and listened to Leeb for at least 30 years. He will again be "spot on".
Next we now have super bullish COT reports on the 10 year treasury.
The treasury will likely mount a strong surge just as most of you believe rates will continue up, bonds down. Not here.
Trump is at war with China and we MUST have a weaker dollar, thus lower rates. That is in the process.
I also refer you to today's RON ROSEN post on 321gold.com. This is must reading. Rosen is quite simply the most accurate forecaster of markets in over 50 years. He still calls for 1124 gold in November and a massive move up that will go to new highs within two years. Personally I thought (hoped?) for a bottom higher and in Sept! And yes a spectacular move up to 1400 by years end. Well, I might be off by a couple of months. Again, see Rosen's. The Cot reports (and they are uncanny for contrarians) and are easily the best since before 2000.
You will see by November (if Rosen is right) a total capitulation. there will be "long term" investors throwing up their hands saying "I've had it"....don't join them.
Now to Bitcoin.
I wish the metals market was as cooperative for me! We called 5850 in late June a BUY. Sure in late July at over 8000 we said a nice profit!! On the way back down to about 6000 we said HOLD if you hadn't sold as we see much higher prices long term. Recently (about a week ago) at 7150 approx. we called for "the pause that refreshes" to about 6800 and then said all clear. Sure it is going to be slow and arduous and we always stated mid-5000's a possibility , then up.
In fact if asked w0uld we see 8000 before 6000 (a recent question)....that is my call.
PLease see the chart. What was resistance is now support. Watch the bollinger bands (the upper and lower blue lines). We are vulnerable to a pullback to just under 7000. I don't see much worse for this reason: SENTIMENT!! As I wrote last week and to me the "tip off" is that while the chart looks good, we now have a "wall of worry". There is more pessimism right now than there was 700 points lower.
We will comment later on the Dow which too is taking a pause that refreshes, likely resumes upward before real trouble sets in. Please comment, especially after you have read Leeb and looked at Rosen's work.
Thank you for the support and please do your due diligence. the opinions above are mine.