Good Saturday afternoon here in the Eastern USA. We are putting up this post a bit unplanned today as I see a surprisingly BULLISH change in one of the SENTIMENT indicators I use. It is in DAILYfx client sentiment indicator. It has dramatically climbed from 21 percent short to 36 percent short positions almost overnight. Now I am watching this very cautiously and am asking "why"?
For those new here, we called SELL in mid Jan. @ 15,000 and (see chart) caught each "low" 6000 or a bit under as a buy and had the 8400 "end of the line SELL" in late July. We have said repeatedly and as recent as last Thursday at near 6500 that SENTIMENT is a big concern in that even at the recent 6100 near term low, there were far too many bulls to sustain a serious buy at present, and, that we "may need to visit the 5,000 's again. This now more than 30 percent increase in "shorts" is shocking. Is is legitimately bullish in that these speculators suddenly turn bearish "enmasse" or could it be something else? We'll monitor closely to be sure. Nonetheless we remain cautiously optimistic far less negative than many. If you bought very near 6000 certainly hold.
The Big Commercials are more bullish on gold and silver than at any time since the 1990's. This indicator is usually 3-6 months early, but extremely accurate. Furthermore China is positioning itself to crush the US in a trade war. It will be a currency war, of course. I will have much more on this "going forward" but remember China is the largest US creditor. The US president imposing billions more in tariffs against China is playing with fire in this writer's opinion.
Sentiment says we are close to liftoff. Could it be November and (gold) 1140 as the legendary ron rosen insists? He also forecasts new highs several years out.
The Dow Jones (see chart below) is back on yet another attempt to news highs. It better hurry up as seasonality is not in its favor and suddenly we see as shift in SENTIMENT. We said Thurs. it was bullish and this too (unlike BTC) has changed dramatically. We see about a 15 % increase in call buyers (optimists among speculators) this is quite negative!! So while
we have been calling for new highs (only about 500 points above the current 26,150) we again say we'd rather be out of this market entirely and into the metals. I strongly suspect some serious bear market activity possibly November this year (coinciding with some US election surprises very anti-Trump?)and in 2019. So, there is a lot under the surface working against the equity market and the dollar and in favor of the metals and I'm hoping the cryptos as well.
Please have a great rest of the weekend and thank you for your support. The week ahead promises to be quite interesting and just wait until we get into November. The summer "doldrums" are over. Your comments welcome!
As always, the opinions above are min....please do your own 'due diligence'.