This is an observation I was having this week trading.
Recently BTC has been going up and up and up – breaking its all-time high multiple times. The last week I've seen multiple "posts" where people claimed that the price of a Bitcoin will be worth 4000, 8000, 16000, 40000 bucks by 2018, or 19, or 20, or 2040. It was a little weird and ridiculuous.
I watched TheChartGuys on YouTube on one of the recent chart climbs of Bitcoin:
At around 1:46 TheChartGuys says: "this candlestick told me that there was power behind this move". No matter if this is correct or not, it made me think about the market. Then following this unsuccessful try to climb higher, we saw that multiple altcoins gained a lot of momentum. Monero, Lisk, Dash, and many more were suddenly going up and reaching for their all-time highs.
Here are a couple of examples. I couldn't remember any more. As you can see on the chart. That there are significant spikes in volume. There's been put a lot more money into these altcoins than before. What I want to say is that these spikes and big price jumps that we've seen calendar week 34, are not unusual, and may not directly be related to the projects themselves but to an increase in volume (or a decrease in supply). To me that says that there are folks, who believe in the alts.
At the same time, compare the volume to BTC/USDT on Bittrex. I must include that this chart is not as significant as the others because Bitcoin is the biggest cryptocurrency we have. Therefore the volumes of some of the alts above look puny compare to Bitcoin's. However I'm including this for completeness sake and comparison purposes.
Now you are probably wondering what alts I am watching. I saw similar trends on:
- PIVX
- Steem
- Waves
- New Economy Movement
- Expanse (this is more a maybe than an absolute yes because Expanse does not have a long enough history)
Please note that this is an observation, and not a buying guide to get rich with alts!
What could this mean? Well, the money has to come from somewhere. It could mean that the money's been pulled out of Bitcoin, and now been put into altcoins. This is likely but obviously. I've been suspecting that what caused the "crash" in July was not uncertainty by the community about the future of Bitcoin, possible forks, and SegWit. But simply because many folks have been going to holiday. So they sold their investments to not wake up to an investment nightmare. These same people may now be coming back and start trading again. Possible. Maybe not.
What interests me now:
Do you see similar trends on the alts you're watching? Do you confirm or object my observations? If so, why? Help me learn.
Everybody else. I'm on Twitter as @zettt. You can also follow me here or on YouTube. Don't forget to check out our Facebook group to learn more about the business aspects of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. A group where we can share our knowledge together!