The following is not intended as financial advice. You should always do your own research and make your own financial decisions. I am not responsible for any decision that you make regarding cryptocurrencies. The following is my own log of what I am doing with my blockfolio and should in no way influence what you do with your own blockfolio.
Happy Wednesday My Fellow SteemIt People
Well, it’s been a stressful week for me so far, I sincerely hope yours is doing better. My stress has nothing to do with the crypto markets, although one might think it would considering my total estimated blockfolio has fallen 1.22% since yesterday.
Just the opposite. I am freakin’ excited about crypto today. My monthly investment has cleared Coinbase and is ready for me to play with. It’s only $93, which I know is not much for a crypto investor—but it’s what I can afford this month and I’m still just as happy when I make gains.
I am not one to scream the end of the world, but I acknowledge that when the hardcore people are predicting a collapse that their logic is not faulty. I’d rather have a couple hundred in crypto than nothing if it does happen. Food wise, I have enough cabrito and pork to last until the next ice age and if I run short it multiplies throughout the year.
Now, moving onto crypto analysis for today.
I had to zoom in to get a clear view of what is going on with Bitcoin today. The good news is when it hit the Tenkan it did not cross it. It’s setting directly above it at the time of this writing (12:31 PM US Central). I really hope for everyone’s sake this is a sign of it respecting the Tenkan as a support and starting to bounce back up the Kijun at some point soon.
Zooming out the future kumo cloud is stagnant on how thick it is in August. It’s not getting thicker, which is a good thing, but it’s also not getting thinner. I’d really like to see it start to thin out and twist by at the very least the end of September.
My concern, and I use the term concern loosely, is if it doesn’t start thinning and twisting the bottom of the cloud is consistently moving lower. As it is it will already provide a resistance at $6778 if the price even manages to break through the resistance of the Kijun.
If the Tenkan and Kijun don’t start falling soon to match the cloud they could also cross the cloud as soon as mid to late August. The indicators are all still bearish and just because the Tenkan and Kijun cross the cloud I don’t think that is a bullish shift. When the shift happens, we need something concrete like a TK cross or a kumo twist.
Based solely on price action I feel like the bears are here to stay through at minimum early to mid-August. Now, we all have heard the news of big changes coming to the space. The introduction of ETFs and institutional banks could cause all existing trends to be worthless. You can’t pump the kind of money that ETFs will bring into any space and expect it to do nothing.
My question is, and it is a legitimate question, answer it in the comments if you have an understanding of it is this: If ETFs bring massive funding into cryptocurrency will really move the price—create a tangible change in the value of each crypto; or, will it essentially create one big bubble that will inevitably pop once prices stabilize? Either scenario you can make money from, but I am curious as to what other people are thinking about the short and long-term effects of ETFs on the space.
Now, moving past my musings over Bitcoin. On to my own blockfolio.
Binance coin is flirting with the top of the cloud this morning after dropping 2.86% since yesterday. The cloud is still bullish and moving up, but there is a real possibility of a TK cross to the bears in the next few days. We are seven days out from the token burn, which I am hoping will start price action back up.
Binance coin is a utility token for me. If it doesn’t turn around I can always use it to pay my fees on the site, but despite indications that we could turn bearish I’m hopefully the outside influence of the coin burn on the 18th may be enough of a push to put back solidly in the bullish camp in the coming weeks.
Ripple, oh, Ripple. Are you trying to tease me or are you really starting to bounce? I’m guessing (and guessing is what I do most of the time) that we’re finally hitting the bottom because of the low Stoch RSI. Ripple must start trying to reach that Tenkan soon.
I’m in for the long haul though. The cloud is showing the big bears are strong. It’s getting wider each day and that is something we will eventually have to overcome. I will be holding Ripple until price gets back above the cloud, preferably a green cloud, and the RSI spikes.
In the meantime, I just really appreciate the 0.1% gain Ripple has had over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin dropping has pulled a lot of coins with it, so I’m happy to see some stabilization in at least one of my holdings.
EOS is basically where it was yesterday. Yes, it’s dropped 2.51% since then, but the indicators really haven’t changed. The Tenkan is still bearish and the future cloud is still bearish. The future cloud is getting wider which means I will probably be holding it for a little longer than what I might have hoped, but it’s nothing not expected.
I honestly think Ethereum is lying about going up. I know it says that it’s gone up 0.45% since yesterday, but judging by the Stoch RSI it would not surprise me in the least to see it make another dip or two before its final turn around.
I really want to see that Tenkan and Kijun get closer together and cross. Until that happens I kind of expect the bottom of the cloud to act as a resistance and for the price to stay below it. I wish I understood the mechanics of why Ethereum is so closely following Bitcoin, but I don’t, and it is. So, until Bitcoin stabilizes, I don’t really expect Ethereum to.
NEO is continuing to follow Bitcoin down. Today NEO is down 1.1% today, but it’s also not to be expected. The Stoch RSI could fall a lot more before the price starts trying to move back up to the Tenkan.
Much like the other coins I’ve gotten into right now NEO is in a strong bear cycle, with both the Tenkan and the cloud being bearish. That trend looks to continue through at least August 6th. Judging by the width of the cloud it will continue for some time after that. All trends go out the window on basically all coins if the ETFs come into the market and significantly boost volume and price.
I understand the upcoming air drop of Ontology is going to drop its value, but I don’t have a lot in it and that change could be offset by the incoming of ETFs. Let me be clear, if I had not already bought this crypto I would absolutely not be buying it now that I’ve learned of the upcoming air drop. I own that I should have done more research before buying it, but it is what it is now.
I don’t own much—less than $20 worth as of right now. If it devalues to nothing, it happens, and I won’t cry over it. Consider it an experiment to see if the downward action caused by the air drop can be countered by the upward action of increased demand from ETFs.
In the mean time while we wait for these two outside forces to happen, it’s just playing follow the leader with Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin is down, Ontology is following. It is what it is, and this is the exact reason I say that none of this is financial advice at the top of the post.
Tron is still down today. It’s only a tiny loss from yesterday and 0.57%, but I am encouraged that we are only at 1:42PM US Central time and volume is already higher than yesterday. I won’t say that volume is going to cause a turnaround and push Tron towards the Tenkan, but I do find it interesting.
I would think if that increased was all in selling that the downward candle would be thicker. If you’ve been doing this awhile and I’m wrong on thinking that about candles, please tell me in the comments. I’ve been studying quite a bit, but studying can never replace experience.
VeChain, like most other coins I hold, is also down today. It’s only down 1.93%, so it’s not too terrible. The Stoch RSI is below 20, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t down dropping. At some point it will start moving back up towards the Tenkan, but I honestly don’t look for that to happen until Bitcoin stabilizes.
Now, on to the new buys. I’ll try not to dwell on my awesome luck to be buying during a dip. I know people who have held alt coins and Bitcoin a lot longer than me are hurting, but I can’t help how excited I am over the opportunities in this market. Also, remember I am trying to not buy anything more of something I already own.
Icon, or ICX, is looking nice to me today. I would have liked to have seen the Stoch RSI lower, but that little green candlestick is encouraging. It is currently showing a strong bearish cycle and I can’t even claim that this is likely the bottom.
I do think it is a bottom, but perhaps not the bottom. The bearish cloud is getting thicker the farther out you go, but my intent is to hold it until the cloud twists and price moves above it with preferable a bullish Tenkan. It may not be the best buy in the world, but I’m comfortable with it.
Cardano is a lot like ICX in that it’s not a perfect buy, but it’s close enough that I’ll take it. You may note that their charts are even looking very similar. The Stoch RSI could be lower, but that little green candle is nice. In a couple months when I finally find that sweet spot to sell I probably won’t even care about the Stoch RSI.
This crypto could absolutely fall for another day or two…possibly even longer if it decides to follow Bitcoin down the proverbial rabbit hole. I acknowledge that risk, but I worry about it less because I am spreading my risk out among several alt coins. This is not financial advice, but let me be clear—I would not risk more than 1-2% of my blockfolio on ANY of my picks.
I honestly believe the bears are strong with this crypto, so I would never buy it if I was not prepared to hold it for a few months.
Same story, different crypto. The Stoch RSI is borderline. The price could fall more, but I’m kind of thinking that it’s done falling because of that little green candle. It is in a decently strong bear cycle that looks to be bringing the bottom of the cloud lower in the future.
That said, I’m not particularly worried. Litecoin has been around a good while and like all my other picks, if it tanks then I’m not out all that much.
I will say that I am optimistic that a kumo twist is brewing for September or October because that kumo cloud is getting decently thin. That twist combined with TK cross could be a powerful push to the bull side of the chart.
Stellar’s Stoch RSI is definitely not where I want it, but I do want some Stellar. I am buying it with the knowledge that it will in likelihood will continue to fall for a few more days. What I am intrigued about on this chart is that dramatic jump of span B of the kumo cloud between August 5th and 6th.
Don’t get me wrong. The bears are strong, and I will be holding Stellar for possibly as long as a couple months. That said, that Span B does matter. What it basically is saying is that our top resistance has just shot up considerably. Now, don’t get too excited. The price would have to break through the Tenkan, Kijun, and bottom of the cloud to get there, but if it can do those things that last resistance point is significantly higher than it was.
I honestly can’t wait to see what happens with Stellar in early August. Nothing could happen, or something big could happen.
ZIL is another crypto I would have preferred the Stoch RSI below 20, but I’m more than okay with 35. I’m not waiting because with so much positive news in the Bitcoin market it could turn around at any time. When Bitcoin jumps, even a small amount, the alts are going to jump with it.
That little green candle could mean ZIL is done falling, but I am buying with the knowledge that it’s just as likely for it to continue to fall for at least a couple of days. The overall trend is bearish. The future cloud is bearish and the Tenkan is bearish. I will be holding until both of those turn around and the price gets above the cloud. In short, I’m not looking to sell ZIL in August. Here’s hoping I’m wrong.
It wouldn’t take much to get IOTA into my sweet spot. With that little green candle, I’ll take it and run. Like most other alts we’re looking at a strong bearish pattern through early August.
Same trends, different crypto. The Stoch RSI sucks, but look at that volume! Some people use that volume as in indicator of a potential run. I don’t really understand that strategy, so I’m planning on buying and holding, but it would be nice. Truthfully, that volume is the only reason I bought this with the RSI so high. Here’s hoping the gamble works out and doesn’t crash and burn—literally.
Monero is perfect. It is so much in my sweet spot to buy it isn’t funny. The Stoch RSI is below 20, the price action is below the Tenkan in a bearish chart. On top of everything it looks like there is a TK cross coming up.
I will likely be holding Monero through early August, but probably not through the end of August. The future cloud is pretty thick, but that TK cross is going to have an effect on the future cloud. I am really happy with this buy today.
INS is also a perfect buy for me. Not only is everything bearish, the Stoch RSI below 20, but today’s candle is also slightly green. Now that candle could fake me out and go red, but I’m happy with it. What I don’t like is that the red cloud is getting wider as we go out.
It would really surprise me if I got to sell this before September. I love surprises, so here’s hoping.
I know what y’all are thinking. She’s nuttier than a Christmas fruitcake on a cheese log. I am trying to catch the bottom. Smarter and saner people than me don’t like trying to play that game and it’s for good reason. Every single one of those picks could come back and bite me worse than a rabid squirrel.
I’m just okay with it because I have spread out the risk—I don’t have much in any given pick. Some will win, some will lose. I’m just hoping the winners out do the losers.
Sorry for the long post and short explanations on new picks—I have meat on the smoker, so I’m sort of popping on and off. Have a great day and good luck with your cryptos!