The dollar has been in a free fall and the worst against all majors so far. There are doubts in the minds of traders over FED monetary policy and the ability for Trump to deliver that are driving selling pressure on the dollar. Doubts over whether the Fed will engage a third hike this year with ongoing concerns over the lack of inflation.
However these fears have been exacerbated by doubts on Donald Trump to be able to deliver the kind of reform he promised. The reform of healthcare and the repeal of Obamacare seems to be dying in Congress as an increasing number of Republicans become opposed. If Trump cannot get healthcare reform through then how is he going to achieve the more controversial fiscal plans through?
We will be having BOE meeting on Thursday. It would be of great interest to see how policymakers vote for the policy, after the 5-3 split (Ian McCafferty, Kristin Forbes and Michael Saunders voted for a rise) in June. The dilemma facing the UK is overshooting inflation on one side and lackluster economic growth together with great uncertainty in Brexit negotiation on the other side.I believe the Bank rate would stay unchanged at 0.25%. BOE's quarterly inflation report would also be released alongside the meeting minutes.
On this busy week ,a focus on central bank meetings and US employment report this Friday could be crucial to dollar momentum.. Non-farm payrolls probably increased +180K in July, down from a +222K addition a month ago. The unemployment rate probably slipped -0.1 percentage point to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings probably gained +0.3% m/m, climbing modestly higher from +0.2% in June.
