In New Zealand at the end of the day, the NZ retail sales came out better than expected for the 4Q at 1.7% vs 1.4% (and the core up 1.8% vs 0.7%), but the price of the NZDUSD could not rally.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price stalled near the 200 hour MA and into the new day, the buyers gave up. The price fell.
The decline took the price below the 50%. That was a key level yesterday. The price based against that level 3 separate times. Breaking below makes what was support, resistance now.
The fall did take the price to a nice target near the 61.8% and a lower trend line. Buyers/profit takers entered. The price moved back higher. We waffle back and forth.
What we know going forward, is
the price this week moved to the downside this week
There were a couple moves above the 100 hour MA (blue line) on the FOMC minutes and again yesterday
Today, better data did not support the currency.
The price fell below the 50% retracement level
All that is bearish.
The bright spot, is the price did find support against the lower trend line (4 point on the line) and the 61.8% held. If you want to say the NZD data should have been supportive (it takes two to tango though), and buying a dip against support makes sense.
What would give buyers more confidence though is a move back above the old floor that is the ceiling now at the 50% retracement (at 0.7306). What would not be good for buyers is a move to new lows. That is the trade ahead (and into next week).