Today, about seven and a half billion people live on our planet. By 2050, experts expect to overcome the bar by 10 billion. The population will need to feed something, and not only carbohydrates and fiber from plants, but also full proteins. To meet the protein needs of this population, according to experts from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Committee, livestock production should now grow by 52 percent. How to do it without causing ecological disaster, many researchers around the world are solving
** One obvious solution to the problem of food is the expansion of aquaculture use, seafood, and cultivated fish. These protein sources can help feed the Earth's population in the future, while significantly reducing one of the most significant environmental consequences of increased meat production - land use expansion. This will allow people not to abandon animal protein in their diet. **
A new study by the American National Center for Synthesis and Environmental Analysis (NCEAS) in Santa Barbara has examined exactly this question - what will happen to agricultural land if humanity increases the consumption of seafood. This work is the first to analyze land use in future consumer systems with an emphasis on aquaculture, the fastest growing food sector in the world. The conclusions of the team of authors are given in the scientific publication ** "Materials of the National Academy of Sciences." **
** The artificial cultivation of seafood also requires the use of feed produced on land, but the amount of land needed per kilogram of the product is much less than traditional beef cattle. **
In the near future, aquaculture has no opportunity to become a major consumer of food grown in fields - pigs, cattle and poultry will remain leaders. Seafood production depends on several land plants, which place them at water intersections and land food systems. To understand the implications of land use, researchers modeled three scenarios for the development of fish and livestock farms by 2050,using seven major plant species. Data on consumption by various branches of corn, wheat and other species are taken from the United Nations report and other scientific sources.
In the first scenario, the consumption of livestock and cultivation is continued at current levels, in two other seafoods that increase their share to meet the additional needs of the population in the protein. As a result, it was found that instead of increasing fertile land, this scenario provided the release of large numbers of cultivated fields - 729-747 million hectares. This amount of land is twice that of India, the seventh largest country in the world!
This reduction takes into account the release of land needed for grazing. Scenarios with future growth of aquaculture differ in different directions - in one assumed fully marine farming, in both marine and freshwater - mixes. It is necessary for scientists to compare options for future development strategies.
Land savings will be achieved due to the fact that fish and other aquatic animals are highly effective when processing feed in biomass for subsequent human consumption. For example, a cow needs six to thirty kilograms of livestock for a kilogram of its mass gain, while most fish grown need only one or two pounds for this.
Means the benefit of just the number of bait is 3-30 times! This super efficiency leads to the fact that to grow the same amount of protein in your fish requires a lot less land.
These results underscore the role that the choice of products consumed by the population plays in the field of ecology and conservation of biodiversity. After all, the greatest threat to nature is our land use.
** The expansion of fields and grasslands around the world leads to the loss of many species of wild plants and animals, and this expansion continues at an extraordinary rate. **
** Aquaculture use offers one way to reduce the pressure on nature on land, although it slightly increases it in water bodies. **
According to scientists, their research does not promote aquaculture as a panacea for all illnesses. As in food systems, there are pros and cons of redistribution that support multiple products. Nevertheless, these results conclusively prove the great potential for seafood production.
There are opportunities to think about where to organize large-scale fish production and other cultivation, making it profitable financially and environmentally safe. This will contribute to the development of a sustainable world economy and ensure the safety of the food of mankind.
** The study also provides incentives to those who think about the ecological aspects of their diet - they will reduce the proportion of meat consumed for fish to reduce the impact on the environment. **
** Of course, this motive is guided by a small number of consumers, but politicians can also draw their conclusions from the published results. **
The propagation of seafood consumption, the financial stimulation of such farms can gradually alter the balance of global power and reduce the amount of agricultural land.
