So I posed this rhetorical question on Facebook yesterday:
Image source: pixabay.com, License: Public Domain, CC0
Image source: pixabay.com, License: Public Domain, CC0Q: If you have decided that cryptocurrency is some sort of voodoo investment, what would it take to change your mind? How high does the market have to go, and for how long does it have to stay there, before you'll conclude that those folks might be on to something? What would it take until it's no longer a 'flash in the pan?'
When thinking about your answer, consider that today's $600 billion cryptocurrency market cap started at 0 almost 9 years ago, and has grown steadily since then. Also remember that the technology finds its roots in cypherpunk imaginings from the 1990s and even before.
To be fair, though, it occurs to me that I should also ask myself the same question from the opposite perspective.
Q: What would it take to change my mind about block chain? How low would the market have to go, and for how long, before I conclude that investing in cryptocurrency is chasing rainbows?
My answer, to put a stake in the ground, is that the entire market would have to drop by the same percentage as it did after the Mt. Gox crash in 2014 - call it 80% in a year, and it would have to stay at that low level for a period of 3-5 years (more 5 than 3, I think).
Aggregate Cryptocurrency Market Cap - Two Years after the Mt. Gox collapse.
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through Dec 31, 2015
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through Dec 31, 2015Aggregate Cryptocurrency Market Cap - Four Years after the Mt. Gox collapse.
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through present.
Image Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Jan 1, 2014 through present.For discussion: No matter which perspective you are starting from, what would it take to change your mind about block chain?