United States dollar currency (US) yesterday had penetrated the level of Rp 14,200. The government is not worried because it believes that the rupiah exchange rate has found a new equilibrium point.
Is the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah in the range of Rp 14,000 a reasonable level?
Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede considers, determining the point of balance of currency values tend to be subjective. Because the desired business world and market participants is stability.
"The new balance is subjective and if we look at it is not the level, the important thing is the rupiah is stable, the stable real sector will be more confidence, not to expect to return to Rp 10 thousand."
Josua explained, there are 3 factors that cause the rupiah continues to weaken. First global negative sentiment, that the Fed will raise interest rates to make foreign funds out of developing countries like Indonesia.
Both trade balance of Indonesia experienced a deficit of US $ 1.63 billion in April 2018 with details of exports of US $ 14.47 billion and imports US $ 16.09 billion.
Then last there is the seasonal sentiment about the rampant dividend payout from the companies. It boosted demand for US dollars domestically for dividend payout to foreign investors.
With reference to these three factors, Josua believes that the current exchange rate does not reflect the true economic fundament of Indonesia. That's how he believes the rupiah should be stronger than the current position.
"Perhaps Mr. Luhut illustrates that people do not need to panic," added Josua.
Josua believes, if the dividend-sharing season has been missed, and global sentiment began to subside then the rupiah could get strong again. He believes the value of rupiah is actually below the level of Rp 14,000.