Recently, the direction of the US dollar has been receiving much attention. Indeed, after the US has started to raise interest rates and the US dollar has become strong, any event that will affect the strength of the US dollar has become crucial, but now, the US dollar seems to be no longer welcome. The Dutch International Bank publicly stated that the status of the US dollar as a safe haven has declined.
The Dutch International Bank said that the performance of the US dollar seems to be entering the next chapter, and the market is slowly accepting that the dollar is heading for the end of the eight-year bull market. On Thursday, the US core CPI monthly rate of 0.3% growth did not provide support for the dollar's rise, the bank believes that investors' attitude toward the dollar has been converted to "sell on rally" (sell on rallies), the dollar is expected The index will fall to the level of 93.65-50. The rate cut signal, including the Fed’s release, will also push the dollar to a weaker level. But now the market seems to pay more attention to the financial situation of the United States. According to the data released by the US Treasury Department, the deficit of the budget for the first nine months of the US fiscal year (October 1st - September 30th) has expanded by 23 %, reached $747.1 billion.
The deterioration of the US financial situation will continue to increase the total debt of the US debt. As of July 13, the total US debt has exceeded 22.49 trillion US dollars. In this regard, US Treasury Secretary Nuchin is urging the United States to raise the US debt ceiling to avoid closing the situation in September. The decline in the status of the dollar seems to be inevitable. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold, which has the same risk-averse effect as the US dollar, will be more popular than the US dollar in 2019. According to WGC data, global gold demand in 2018 increased by 4% year-on-year to 4,345.1 tons. The amount of gold purchased by the central bank reached its highest level since 1971. In 2018, the global central bank's gold reserves soared 651.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 74%.
At the same time, the rise of the status of the renminbi has also weakened the status of the US dollar. According to the latest data released by the IMF, the proportion of RMB foreign exchange reserve assets rose to 1.95% in the first quarter of 2011, the highest level, and as of the end of June this year, the positions of overseas institutions The size of China's bonds has also reached a record high of about 1.65 trillion yuan. Obviously, RMB assets are also being welcomed by global investors.
