Yes I do think Trump will be reelected in 2020. This mainly depends on who the democrats choose to run in 2020. It better be someone who appeals to the Rust Belt states that Clinton lost, unless they just want to set themselves up for another electoral college loss. Remember, the popular vote does not select the president, the electoral college does. If the Democrats nominate someone who only appeals to their base and doesn't manage to increase their share of the electoral college they will lose. Another five million votes in California don’t make a difference if they lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin again. The Democrats need to start paying attention to the game rather than sticking their heads in the clouds and dreaming. Additionally Trump is the incumbent and therefore has an advantage going in. As long as he avoids making any drastic mistakes he will be reelected, and next time he might even win the popular vote.
President’s lose when coalitions dissolve, and that is a typically slow process. It’s highly unlikely he will lose his in 4 years.
5 of the last 8 Presidents have sought and won reelection. Of those that lost you have Gerald Ford, who is an appointed, not an elected Vice President. Then you have Jimmy Carter who is voted out during a very poor economy. Finally there is George H.W. Bush would could be seen as a third term for Reagan as much as a first term for himself. He also suffered do to a slight economic downturn, and rising taxes.
As of day 100, despite having 44% approval ratings (which are not far below his predecessor, Obama), his approval rating among his supporters is 96%. Only 2% of those that voted for him say they regret voting him. This indicates that he should expect to get nearly all his voters back. If he’s able to gain any more support over the next four years, that will make things very tough for Democrats.
1. Party polarization and affiliation is so strong in the United States it has become tribal. No matter who leads the Republican Party, its members will support him.
2. The economy is performing well under Mr. Trump. Jobs are in supply.
3. His immigration stand has broad appeal. Many view him as the saviour of white America. The population is 72 per cent white.