Bitcoin continues to rise in the face of all challenges: Contentious hard forks, government intervention, mindless attacks... and stagnant transaction volume. I don't hear many people talk about this - the fact that the rolling daily transaction volume for Bitcoin hasn't done diddly squat over the past year, yet price has gone up 900%.
If there is ONE fundamental metric we can all agree upon for Bitcoin, it is the number of transactions completed using the cryptocurrency. Yet we remain at approximately 250 - 350k transactions a day, while Paypal averaged approximately 21 million transactions a day in Q3'17. It's even worse when you consider the fact that transactions between exchanges (not inside) are included, which I don't really consider "adoption."
Yet despite this, Bitcoin continues to skyrocket. The best argument out there is that Bitcoin is stealing part of gold's market share as a store of value, and given that gold is over a $7T market, Bitcoin is still peanuts compared to the size it could grow to. However, when I hear most people talk about Bitcoin, they talk about how it will replace governments, take over banks and revolution P2P transactions - all of which require a SUBSTANTIAL increase in transaction volume.
I argue Bitcoin continues to rise for these reasons:
- FOMO Investing
- Incremental Value created by news event due to inability or lack of skill for finding a fair value for Bitcoin to converge to by most market participants
- Price Memory
- Increased market share for "store of value"
What are your thoughts? I'd love to hear them in the comments.
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