Christian from Ice Age Farmer takes a brief look at a couple different vectors into the literature around the history of solar cycles, their effect on our climate, and why it's relevant to our life now!
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Departing briefly--once!--from the usual focus on self-sufficiency: IAF introduces scientific literature speaking to extended solar minima and predicting our standing at the precipice now of a modern Grand Solar Minimum.
Start taking daily steps NOW towards radical self-sufficiency so that you can thrive in the Grand Solar Minimum!
References:
Eddy 1976 The Maunder Minimum
http://www.jstor.org/stable/1742583?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
http://www.odlt.org/dcd/docs/john_eddy_Maunder_Minimum.pdf
Jose 1965 - Sun's Motion and Sunspots
Described the sun's motion about the barycentre of our system as a 179-yr cycle
http://giurfa.com/jose.pdf
Eddy's work was not without its detractors, which is evident even from the abstract of his 1983 paper Reappraising the Maunder Minimum:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00211962?LI=true
FAIRBRIDGE & SHIRLEY
Among the literature that cites Eddy's work directly, is a 1987 paper by Fairbridge and Shirley, predicting that a Maunder-type prolonged minimum would be underway by 2013 on the basis of a study of the solar motion with respect to the solar system barycenter in the years 760-2100.
[Abtract] We studied the inertial motion of the Sun for the period A.D. 760–2100. Defining solar orbits with reference to the Sun's successive close approaches to the solar system barycenter, occurring at mean intervals of 19.86 yr, we find simple relationships linking the inertial orientation of the solar orbit and the amplitude of the precessional rotation of the orbit with the occurrence of the principal prolonged solar activity minima of the current millenium (the Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder minima). The progression of the inertial orientation parameter is controlled by the 900-yr ‘great inequality’ of the motion of Jupiter and Saturn, while the precessional rotation parameter is linked with the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion previously identified by Jose (1965).
A NEW PROLONGED MINIMUM OF SOLAR ACTIVITY MAY BE IMMINENT.
[/Abstract]
Ivanka Charvatova
Work in 1989, still publishing on it today
Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?
http://www.ann-geophys.net/18/399/2000/angeo-18-399-2000.pdf
Good interview with her, acknowledges ClimateGate:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/06/10/interview-with-ivanka-charvatova-is-climate-change-caused-by-solar-inertial-motion/
Landscheidt
(too much to describe)
OTHER MODELS ALSO SUPPORTING our ENTERING A NEW PROLONGED MINIMUM:
Wilson, Carter, Waite 2008
Does a Spin–Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?
- 4.3 Important Consequences of the Resonance Model
Interestingly, the Sun’s solar cycle has been in the phase locked mode for the last 105 yr (1900–2005) and the indications are that it is about to suffer another phase catastrophe in the later part of cycle 24 (i.e. the solar cycle that will peak in ∼2011–2012). If this is the case, then we should expect that in the two decades following the phase catastrophe, the world’s mean temperature should be noticeably cooler i.e. THE COOLING SHOULD START IN THE LATE 2010s. This claim is based on the precedent that there were noticeable decreases in the world’s mean temperature following the last two phase catastrophes. The cool period now as the Dalton Minimum (1800–1820) that followed the phase catastrophe in the early 1790s and a similar cool period called the Victorian Minimum (1880–1900) that followed the phase catastrophe in the late 1870s.
James Shirley, MS (Physics / Geosciences)
https://science.jpl.nasa.gov/people/Shirley/
Editor of Encyclopedia of Planetary Sciences 1991-1996
(puts the PEER in PEER REVIEW)
Continues to work at NASA's JPL at Caltech, publishes lately more on Mars. But I did find these slides from a presentation:
http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita/articles/09WSM/Shirley_SPD09.pdf
FINALLY, a fractal model of the non-local universe:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077915003082
. . . as above, so below.
Life is but a dream.
Take care folks.
Start taking daily steps NOW towards radical self-sufficiency so that you can thrive in the Grand Solar Minimum!
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